Summary
Seasonal influenza is a viral infection that occurs annually in the winter months from December to March/April in the Northern Hemisphere and from May to August/September in the Southern Hemisphere. Two types of influenza virus, type A and B, are responsible for the majority of seasonal influenza infections in humans, and due to frequent virus mutations annual vaccination is recommended. The WHO estimates three to five million cases of severe seasonal influenza infections and 290,000 to 650,000 influenza-related respiratory deaths, most of them in the elderly population. Therefore, many countries recommend annual immunization against seasonal influenza, especially for high-risk groups such as young children, pregnant women, elderly people, and people with chronic diseases.
Immunization provides the best protection against the influenza virus and vaccines have been available for decades with a recent switch from trivalent to quadrivalent vaccines that protect against each two influenza type A and two B strains. Traditionally, seasonal influenza vaccines have been produced in eggs, but a slow manufacturing process and viral egg-adaptations have led to a push for cell-based and recombinant vaccine production methods in recent years.
Key Questions Answered
- How will the seasonal influenza vaccine market landscape in the 8MM (US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan, Brazil) change from 2018-2028?
- What are the most promising late-stage pipeline products for seasonal influenza vaccination?
- How do the clinical and commercial attributes of late-stage pipeline products compare with one another, and against existing immunization options?
- What are the remaining unmet needs in seasonal influenza immunization?
- What drivers and barriers will affect seasonal influenza vaccine sales in the 8MM over the forecast period?
Key Highlights
- During the 10-year forecast period, there are nine pipeline products that are on track to launch, driving a forecast growth in the 8MM from $4.6b in 2018 to $6.5b in 2028, which represents a CAGR of 3.7%.
- The late stage pipeline for seasonal influenza vaccines, targeting the urgent unmet need of vaccine efficacy, focuses on novel production methods and the improvement and development of influenza vaccines for specific age groups. In addition to new cell-based (Medicago’s virus-like-particle VLP-vaccine MDG-2271) and recombinant influenza vaccines (Novavax’s adjuvanted nanoparticle NanoFlu), universal influenza vaccines are expected to launch by 2028.
- The universal vaccine candidates, BiondVax’s M-001, FluGen’s RedeeFlu, and Imutex’s FLU-v, target conserved regions of influenza virus proteins and thus promise to protect against multiple (more than four) influenza virus strains, as well as protect for multiple influenza seasons. GlobalData expects that universal influenza vaccines will have a market share of 18% and sales of $1.15B in the 8MM by 2028. However, their market share might decrease over time, if the vaccines are as successful as promised and reduce the need for annual vaccinations.
Scope
- Overview of seasonal influenza, including epidemiology, etiology, pathophysiology, symptoms, diagnosis, and current management strategies.
- Topline Seasonal influenza market revenue from 2018-2028. Annual cost of immunization and major pipeline product sales in this forecast period are included.
- Key topics covered include current vaccination options, unmet needs and opportunities, and the drivers and barriers affecting seasonal influenza vaccine sales in the 8MM.
- Pipeline analysis: comprehensive data split across different phases, emerging novel trends under development, synopses of innovative early-stage projects, and detailed analysis of late-stage pipeline products.
- Analysis of the current and future market competition in the global seasonal influenza vaccine market. Insightful review of the key industry drivers, restraints and challenges. Each trend is independently researched to provide qualitative analysis of its implications.
Reasons to buy
The report will enable you to -
- Develop and design your in-licensing and out-licensing strategies through a review of pipeline products and technologies, and by identifying the companies with the most robust pipeline.
- Develop business strategies by understanding the trends shaping and driving the global seasonal influenza vaccine market.
- Drive revenues by understanding the key trends, innovative products and technologies, market segments, and companies likely to impact the seasonal influenza vaccine market in the future.
- Formulate effective sales and marketing strategies by understanding the competitive landscape and by analyzing the performance of various competitors.
- Identify emerging players with potentially strong product portfolios and create effective counter-strategies to gain a competitive advantage.
- Organize your sales and marketing efforts by identifying the market categories and segments that present maximum opportunities for consolidations, investments, and strategic partnerships.
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Table of Contents
1.1 List of Tables
1.2 List of Figures
2 Seasonal Influenza Vaccines: Executive Summary
2.1 Modest Growth Expected for the Seasonal Influenza Vaccine Market over the Forecast Period from 2018-2028
2.2 Transition from Egg-Based to Cell Culture-Based and Recombinant Seasonal Influenza Vaccines Is Underway
2.3 Seasonal Influenza Vaccine Efficacy and Vaccine Hesitancy
2.4 Non-egg-based Vaccines Will Take 38% of the 8MM Influenza Vaccine Market by 2028
2.5 What Do Physicians Think?
3 Introduction
3.1 Catalyst
3.2 Related Reports
3.3 Upcoming Related Reports
4 Disease Overview
4.1 Etiology and Pathophysiology
5 Epidemiology
5.1 Disease Background
5.2 Risk Factors and Comorbidities
5.3 Global and Historical Trends
5.3.1 US
5.3.2 5EU
5.3.3 Japan
5.3.4 Brazil
5.4 Forecast Methodology
5.4.1 Sources
5.4.2 Forecast Assumptions and Methods
5.5 Epidemiological Forecast for Seasonal Influenza (2018-2028)
5.5.1 Diagnosed Incident Cases of Lab-Confirmed Seasonal Influenza
5.5.2 Age-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of Disease of Lab-Confirmed Seasonal Influenza
5.5.3 Sex-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of Lab-Confirmed Seasonal Influenza
5.5.4 Lab-Confirmed Seasonal Influenza Mortality
5.5.5 Age-Specific Vaccination of Seasonal Influenza
5.6 Discussion
5.6.1 Epidemiological Forecast Insight
5.6.2 Limitations of Analysis
5.6.3 Strengths of Analysis
6 Disease Management
6.1 Diagnosis and Overview
6.2 US
6.3 5EU
6.3.1 France
6.3.2 Germany
6.3.3 Italy
6.3.4 Spain
6.3.5 UK
6.4 Japan
6.5 Brazil
7 Competitive Assessment
7.1 Overview
8 Unmet Needs and Opportunity Assessment
8.1 Overview
8.2 Enhanced Vaccine Efficacy in High-Risk Groups
8.3 Public Opinion of Seasonal Influenza Vaccines: Awareness, Hesitancy, and Skepticism
8.4 Immunization Policies Targeting Children and Adolescents
8.5 Vaccines Leveraging Innovative and Efficient Manufacturing Technologies
8.6 Vaccines with Broader Influenza Strain Coverage
9 Pipeline Assessment
9.1 Overview
9.2 Promising Drugs in Clinical Development
9.3 Other Drugs in Clinical Development
10 Current and Future Players
10.1 Overview
10.2 Trends in Corporate Strategy
10.3 Company Portfolio Assessment
10.3.1 Sanofi
10.3.2 Seqirus (CSL Limited)
10.3.3 GlaxoSmithKline
10.3.4 Mylan
10.3.5 AstraZeneca
10.3.6 Mitsubishi Tanabe Pharma
10.3.7 Other Companies
11 Market Outlook
11.1 Global Markets
11.1.1 Forecast
11.1.2 Drivers and Barriers - Global Issues
11.2 US
11.2.1 Forecast
11.2.2 Key Events
11.2.3 Drivers and Barriers
11.3 5EU
11.3.1 Forecast
11.3.2 Key Events
11.3.3 Drivers and Barriers
11.4 Japan
11.4.1 Forecast
11.4.2 Key Events
11.4.3 Drivers and Barriers
11.5 Brazil
11.5.1 Forecast
11.5.2 Key Events
11.5.3 Drivers and Barriers
12 Appendix
List of Tables
Table 1: Seasonal Influenza: Key Metrics in the 8MM
Table 2: Influenza Symptoms
Table 3: Risk Factors and Comorbidities for Seasonal Influenza
Table 4: National Vaccination Recommendations for Seasonal Influenza
Table 5: Main Vaccines and Targeted Populations for Routine Administration in the US
Table 6: Main Vaccines and Targeted Population for Routine Administration in the 5EU
Table 7: Main Vaccines and Targeted Population for Routine Administration in Japan
Table 8: Main Vaccines and Targeted Population for Routine Administration in Brazil
Table 9: Leading Treatments for Seasonal Influenza, 2019
Table 10: Key companies in the Seasonal Influenza Vaccine Market, 2019
Table 11: Sanofi’s Seasonal Influenza Vaccine Portfolio Assessment, 2019
Table 12: Seqirus’ Seasonal Influenza Vaccine Portfolio Assessment, 2019
Table 13: GSK’s Seasonal Influenza Vaccine Portfolio Assessment, 2019
Table 14: Mylan’s Seasonal Influenza Vaccine Portfolio Assessment, 2019
Table 15: AstraZeneca’s Seasonal Influenza Vaccine Portfolio Assessment, 2019
Table 16: Mitsubishi Tanabe’s Seasonal Influenza Vaccine Portfolio Assessment, 2019
Table 17: Medicago’s Seasonal Influenza Vaccine Portfolio Assessment, 2019
Table 18: BiondVax’s Seasonal Influenza Vaccine Portfolio Assessment, 2019
Table 19: Novavax’s Seasonal Influenza Vaccine Portfolio Assessment, 2019
Table 20: Seasonal Influenza Vaccines Market - Global Drivers and Barriers, 2018-2028
Table 21: Key Events Impacting Sales for Seasonal Influenza Vaccines in the US, 2018-2028
Table 22: Seasonal Influenza Vaccines Market - Drivers and Barriers in the US, 2018-2028
Table 23: Key Events Impacting Sales for Seasonal Influenza Vaccines in the 5EU, 2018-2028
Table 24: Seasonal Influenza Vaccines Market - Drivers and Barriers in the 5EU, 2018-2028
Table 25: Key Events Impacting Sales for Seasonal Influenza Vaccines in Japan, 2018-2028
Table 26: Seasonal Influenza Vaccines Market - Global Drivers and Barriers in Japan, 2018-2028
Table 27: Key Events Impacting Sales for Seasonal Influenza Vaccines in Brazil, 2018-2028
Table 28: Seasonal Influenza Vaccines Market - Global Drivers and Barriers in Brazil, 2018-2028
Table 29: Key Historical and Projected Launch Dates for Seasonal Influenza Vaccines
Table 30: High-Prescribing Physicians (non-KOLs) Surveyed, By Country
List of Figures
Figure 1: Global Sales Forecast by Country for Seasonal Influenza Vaccines in 2018 and 2028
Figure 2: Analysis of the Company Portfolio Gap in Seasonal Influenza Vaccines During the Forecast Period
Figure 3: Competitive Assessment of the Late-Stage Pipeline Agents Expected to Be Licensed for Seasonal Influenza Vaccination by 2028
Figure 4: Influenza Virus Structure
Figure 5: Diagnosed Incidence of Lab-Confirmed Seasonal Influenza, Men, Women, All Ages, Cases per 100,000 Population, 2018
Figure 6: 8MM, Sources Used and Not Used for Diagnosed Incident Cases of Lab-Confirmed Seasonal Influenza
Figure 7: 8MM, Sources Used for Lab-Confirmed Seasonal Influenza Mortality
Figure 8: 8MM, Sources Used for Proportion of People Receiving Seasonal Influenza Vaccination
Figure 9: Diagnosed Incident Cases of Lab-Confirmed Seasonal Influenza, 8MM, Both Sexes, All Ages, 2018
Figure 10: Age-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of Lab-Confirmed Seasonal Influenza, 8MM, Both Sexes, All Ages, 2018, N
Figure 11: Sex-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of Lab-Confirmed Seasonal Influenza, 8MM, All Ages, 2018, N
Figure 12: Lab-Confirmed Seasonal Influenza Mortality, 8MM, Both Sexes, All Ages, 2018, N
Figure 13: Age-Specific Cases of People Receiving Seasonal Influenza Vaccination, 8MM, Both Sexes, All Ages, 2018, N
Figure 14: Unmet Needs and Opportunities in Seasonal Influenza Vaccination
Figure 15: Overview of the Development Pipeline for Seasonal Influenza Vaccines
Figure 16: Key Phase II/III Trials for the Promising Pipeline Agents that GlobalData Expects to Be Licensed for Seasonal Influenza in the 8MM During the Forecast Period
Figure 17: Competitive Assessment of the Late-Stage Pipeline Agents that GlobalData Expects to Be Licensed for Seasonal Influenza Immunization
Figure 18: Analysis of the Company Portfolio Gap in Seasonal Influenza Vaccines During the Forecast Period
Figure 19: Global (8MM) Sales Forecast by Country for Seasonal Influenza Vaccines in 2018 and 2028
Figure 20: Sales Forecast by Class for Seasonal Influenza Vaccines in the US in 2018 and 2028
Figure 21: Sales Forecast by Class for Seasonal Influenza Vaccines in the 5EU in 2018 and 2028
Figure 22: Sales Forecast by Class for Seasonal Influenza Vaccines in Japan in 2018 and 2028
Figure 23: Sales Forecast by Class for Seasonal Influenza Vaccines in Brazil 2018 and 2028
