Summary
Lung cancer is a disease of uncontrolled cell growth in the lung tissues. It is one of the most commonly occurring cancers in the world (IARC, 2016). Lung cancer is classified into three main types: non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), small cell lung cancer, and lung carcinoid tumor. NSCLC is the most common type of lung cancer, making up about 85% of all lung cancers. Small cell lung cancer accounts for 10-15% of lung cancers, while carcinoid tumors are the rarest, occurring in fewer than 5% of lung cancers.
In the 8MM, the diagnosed incident cases of NSCLC will increase from 791,563 cases in 2015 to 1,069,516 cases in 2025, at an Annual Growth Rate (AGR) of 3.51% per year. When examining the AGR by individual market, GlobalData forecasts that all markets will see an increase in the diagnosed incident cases of NSCLC during the forecast period. In 2015, there were 1,199,845 five-year diagnosed prevalent cases of NSCLC in the 8MM, which is expected to increase to 1,626,132 cases by 2025, at an AGR of 3.55%.
The relative survival of NSCLC varies by subtype, where adenocarcinoma has the highest survival, followed by squamous cell carcinoma, and large cell carcinoma. In the alternate forecast, due to the forecast increase in adenocarcinoma during 2015-2025, GlobalData epidemiologists expect an increase in relative survival and, consequently, an increase in the number of five-year diagnosed prevalent cases of NSCLC.
GlobalData epidemiologists also provided two forecasts to address potential changes in the epidemiology of NSCLC during the forecast period 2015-2025: one in which the historical distribution of histology subtypes are held constant throughout the forecast period, and an alternate forecast where the histology subtypes are forecast to change over time. The two forecasts provide different outlooks on the market depending on the baseline assumptions.
Scope
- The Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) EpiCast Report provides an overview of the risk factors and global trends of NSCLC in the 8MM (US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan, and Urban China). It also includes a 10-year epidemiology forecast of the diagnosed incident and five-year diagnosed prevalent cases of NSCLC in these markets from 2015-2025. The incident cases are further segmented by sex and age, cancer stage at diagnosis (IA, IB, IIA, IIB, IIIA, IIIB, and IV), cancer histology subtype (adenocarcinoma, squamous cell carcinoma, large cell carcinoma, and other), and the presentation of the biomarker mutations by histology subtype (EGFR, KRAS, ALK, METExon 14, PIK3CA, BRAF V600E, and ROS1). The report also provides an alternate forecast scenario that takes into account potential changes in the diagnosed incident cases distribution by histology subtype.
- The NSCLC epidemiology report is written and developed by Masters- and PhD-level epidemiologists.
- The EpiCast Report is in-depth, high quality, transparent and market-driven, providing expert analysis of disease trends in the 8MM.
Reasons to buy
The NSCLC EpiCast report will allow you to -
- Develop business strategies by understanding the trends shaping and driving the global NSCLC market.
- Quantify patient populations in the global NSCLC market to improve product design, pricing, and launch plans.
- Organize sales and marketing efforts by identifying the age groups and sex that present the best opportunities for NSCLC therapeutics in each of the markets covered.
- Compare patient population potentials due to potential changes in histology subtypes.
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1 Table of Contents
1 Table of Contents 5
1.1 List of Tables 7
1.2 List of Figures 8
2 Epidemiology 9
2.1 Disease Background 9
2.2 Risk Factors and Comorbidities 10
2.3 Global Trends 11
2.3.1 Incidence 11
2.3.2 Histological Subtypes 12
2.3.3 Relative Survival 13
2.4 Forecast Methodology 14
2.4.1 Sources Used 15
2.4.2 Forecast Assumptions and Methods - Base Forecast 25
2.4.3 Forecast Assumptions and Methods - Alternate Forecast 36
2.4.4 Sources Not Used 37
2.5 Epidemiological Forecast for NSCLC (2015-2025) - Base Forecast 38
2.5.1 Diagnosed Incident Cases of NSCLC 38
2.5.2 Age-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of NSCLC 40
2.5.3 Sex-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of NSCLC 42
2.5.4 Age-Standardized Diagnosed Incidence of NSCLC 44
2.5.5 Diagnosed Incident Cases of NSCLC by Clinical Stage at Diagnosis 45
2.5.6 Diagnosed Incident Cases of NSCLC by Histology Subtype 46
2.5.7 Mutations Among Diagnosed Incident Cases of Adenocarcinoma 47
2.5.8 Mutations Among Diagnosed Incident Cases of Squamous Cell Carcinoma 48
2.5.9 Mutations Among Diagnosed Incident Cases of NSCLC 49
2.5.10 Five-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of NSCLC 50
2.6 Epidemiological Forecast for NSCLC (2015-2025) - Alternate Forecast 52
2.6.1 Alternate Forecast - Diagnosed Incident Cases of NSCLC by Histology 52
2.6.2 Alternate Forecast - Five-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of NSCLC 54
2.7 Discussion 55
2.7.1 Epidemiological Forecast Insight 55
2.7.2 Limitations of the Analysis 56
2.7.3 Strengths of the Analysis 57
3 Appendix 58
3.1 Bibliography 58
3.2 About the Authors 63
3.2.1 Epidemiologists 63
3.2.2 Reviewers 64
3.2.3 Global Director of Therapy Analysis and Epidemiology 64
3.3 About GlobalData 65
3.4 About EpiCast 65
3.5 Disclaimer 66
1.1 List of Tables
Table 1: Risk Factors and Comorbidities for Lung Cancer 10
Table 2: Histological Subtype Distribution Among NSCLC 13
Table 3: 8MM, Relative Survival 14
Table 4: 8MM, Sources Used for Diagnosed Incidence of NSCLC 15
Table 5: 8MM, Sources Used for Cancer Stage at Diagnosis 16
Table 6: 8MM, Sources Used for NSCLC by Histological Subtypes 18
Table 7: US, Sources Used for Diagnosed Incident Cases of NSCLC Segmented by Mutation 19
Table 8: 5EU, Sources Used for Diagnosed Incident Cases of NSCLC Segmented by Mutation 20
Table 9: Japan, Sources Used for Diagnosed Incident Cases of NSCLC Segmented by Mutation 22
Table 10: China (Urban), Sources Used for Diagnosed Incident Cases of NSCLC Segmented by Mutation 23
Table 11: 8MM, Sources Used for Relative Survival of NSCLC 24
Table 12: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of NSCLC, Both Sexes, Ages ≥18 Years, N, Select Years 2015-2025 39
Table 13: 8MM, Age-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of NSCLC, Both Sexes, N (Row %), 2015 41
Table 14: 8MM, Sex-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of NSCLC, Ages ≥18 Years, N (Row %), 2015 43
Table 15: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of NSCLC by Clinical Stage at Diagnosis, Ages ≥18 Years, N, 2015 46
Table 16: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of NSCLC by Histological Subtypes, Ages ≥18 Years, N, 2015 47
Table 17: 8MM, Mutations Among Diagnosed Incident Cases of Adenocarcinoma, Both Sexes, Ages ≥18 Years, N, 2015 48
Table 18: 8MM, Mutations Among Diagnosed Incident Cases of Squamous Cell Carcinoma, Both Sexes, Ages ≥18 Years, N, 2015 49
Table 19: 8MM, Mutations Among Diagnosed Incident Cases of NSCLC, Both Sexes, N, Ages ≥18 Years, 2015 50
Table 20: 8MM, Five-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of NSCLC, Both Sexes, Ages ≥18 Years, N, Select Years 2015-2025 51
Table 21: 8MM, Alternate Forecast, Diagnosed Incident Cases of NSCLC by Histology Subtypes, Ages ≥18 Years, N, 2015 and 2025 53
Table 22: 8MM, Alternate Forecast, Five-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of NSCLC, Both Sexes, Ages ≥18 Years, N, Select Years 2015-2025 55
1.2 List of Figures
Figure 1: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of NSCLC, Both Sexes, Ages ≥18 Years, N, Select Years 2015-2025 40
Figure 2: 8MM, Age-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of NSCLC, Both Sexes, N, 2015 42
Figure 3: 8MM, Sex-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of NSCLC, Ages ≥18 Years, N, 2015 44
Figure 4: 8MM, Age-Standardized Diagnosed Incidence of NSCLC, Ages ≥18 Years, N, 2015 45
Figure 5: 8MM, Five-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of NSCLC, Both Sexes, Ages ≥18 Years, N, Select Years 2015-2025 52
