Summary
Breast cancer is a malignant tumor that originates in the breast tissues. Most breast cancers are invasive tumors that have grown beyond the ducts or lobules of the breast and can metastasize to other parts of the body through the bloodstream and the lymphatic system. Invasive breast cancer in this analysis is defined as ICD-10 codes C50.0-50.9, while non-invasive DCIS breast cancer is defined as ICD-10 code D05.1; both types of breast cancer are based on country-specific, nationally representative sources. Uniform diagnostic criteria are used for all segmentations across the 8MM, where a breast biopsy was used to confirm cases of breast cancer. In addition, comparable staging criteria by the AJCC (American Joint Committee on Cancer) and UICC (Union for International Cancer Control) were applied across all 8MM.
GlobalData epidemiologists forecast that the diagnosed incident cases of invasive breast cancer (not including DCIS) in the 8MM for women will grow by an Annual Growth Rate (AGR) of 1.94% over the next 10 years, from 795,114 cases in 2015 to 949,161 cases in 2025. In 2015, the 60-69 year age group had the highest number of diagnosed incident cases of invasive breast cancer, contributing 195,701 (24.61%) cases of the total in the 8MM. Overall, the majority of diagnosed incident cases of breast cancer occurred in ages 40 years and older, accounting for 95.48% of all cases in the 8MM in 2015. The 8MM will see an increase in five-year diagnosed prevalent cases throughout the forecast period at an AGR of 2.39%, with 3,549,784 cases in 2015 and 4,399,243 in 2025. For HER2 status of diagnosed incident cases of invasive breast cancer in the 8MM throughout the forecast period, 17.53% of cases were HER2+, 68.07% were HER2-/HR+, and 14.40% were TN.
GlobalData epidemiologists utilized comprehensive, country-specific data from national breast cancer registries and peer-reviewed journal articles when available, to arrive at a meaningful, in-depth analysis and forecast for the diagnosed incident and five-year diagnosed prevalent cases of breast cancer. In this analysis, GlobalData epidemiologists provide detailed, clinically relevant segmentations for diagnosed incident cases of breast cancer.
Scope
- The Breast Cancer EpiCast Report provides an overview of the risk factors and global trends of NSCLC in the 8MM (US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan, and urban China). This report includes a forecast of non-invasive ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) breast cancer cases segmented by HER2 status. In addition, it includes a 10-year epidemiological forecast for the diagnosed incident cases and the five-year diagnosed prevalent cases of invasive breast cancer in women segmented by age (18 to 85 years and older) and HER2 status (HER2+/hormone receptor [HR]+, HER2+/HR-, HER2-/HR+, and HER2-/HR- triple negative [TN]). HER2+ invasive breast cancer cases are further segmented by stage at diagnosis, menopausal status, and site of metastasis; HER2-/HR+ invasive breast cancer cases are further segmented by stage at diagnosis, menopausal status, and biomarker expression; and TN invasive breast cancer cases are further segmented by stage at diagnosis and BRCA expression.
- The breast cancer epidemiology report is written and developed by Masters- and PhD-level epidemiologists.
- The EpiCast Report is in-depth, high quality, transparent and market-driven, providing expert analysis of disease trends in the 8MM.
Reasons to buy
The Breast Cancer EpiCast report will allow you to -
- Develop business strategies by understanding the trends shaping and driving the global breast cancer market.
- Quantify patient populations in the global breast cancer market to improve product design, pricing, and launch plans.
- Organize sales and marketing efforts by identifying the age groups and sex that present the best opportunities for breast cancer therapeutics in each of the markets covered.
- Compare patient population potentials by HER2 status, menopausal status, and biomarker expression
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1 Table of Contents
1 Table of Contents 5
1.1 List of Tables 7
1.2 List of Figures 8
2 Epidemiology 10
2.1 Disease Background 10
2.2 Risk Factors and Comorbidities 11
2.3 Global Trends 14
2.3.1 US 15
2.3.2 5EU 15
2.3.3 Japan 16
2.3.4 China (Urban) 16
2.3.5 Prevalence and Survival 17
2.4 Forecast Methodology 19
2.4.1 Sources Used Tables 21
2.4.2 Forecast Assumptions and Methods 33
2.4.3 Sources Not Used 53
2.5 Epidemiological Forecast for Non-Invasive DCIS Breast Cancer (2015-2025) 54
2.5.1 Diagnosed Incident Cases of Non-Invasive DCIS Breast Cancer 54
2.5.2 Diagnosed Incident Cases of Non-Invasive DCIS Breast Cancer by HER2 Status 56
2.6 Epidemiological Forecast for Invasive Breast Cancer (2015-2025) 58
2.6.1 Diagnosed Incident Cases of Invasive Breast Cancer 58
2.6.2 Age-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of Invasive Breast Cancer 60
2.6.3 Age-Standardized Diagnosed Incidence of Invasive Breast Cancer 62
2.6.4 Five-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Invasive Breast Cancer 64
2.6.5 Diagnosed Incident Cases of Invasive Breast Cancer by Stage at Diagnosis 65
2.6.6 Diagnosed Incident Cases of Invasive Breast Cancer by HER2 Status 67
2.6.7 Diagnosed Incident Cases of HER2+ Invasive Breast Cancer by Stage at Diagnosis, Menopausal Status, and Site of Metastasis 69
2.6.8 Diagnosed Incident Cases of HER2-/HR+ Breast Cancer by Stage at Diagnosis, Menopausal Status, and Type of Biomarker Expression 74
2.6.9 Diagnosed Incident Cases of TN Breast Cancer by Stage at Diagnosis and BRCA Expression 77
2.7 Discussion 78
2.7.1 Epidemiological Forecast Insight 78
2.7.2 Limitations of the Analysis 81
2.7.3 Strengths of the Analysis 82
3 Appendix 84
3.1 Bibliography 84
3.2 About the Authors 93
3.2.1 Epidemiologists 93
3.2.2 Reviewers 94
3.2.3 Global Director of Therapy Analysis and Epidemiology 96
3.3 About GlobalData 97
3.4 About EpiCast 97
3.5 Disclaimer 98
1.1 List of Tables
Table 1: Risk Factors and Comorbidities for Breast Cancer 12
Table 2: 8MM, Most Recent Five-Year Relative Survival for Invasive Breast Cancer, Women (%) 17
Table 3: 8MM, Sources of Epidemiological Data Used to Forecast Diagnosed Incidence of Non-Invasive DCIS Breast Cancer 21
Table 4: 8MM, Sources of Epidemiological Data Used to Forecast Diagnosed Incident Cases of Non-Invasive DCIS Breast Cancer by HER2 Status 22
Table 5: 8MM, Sources of Epidemiological Data Used to Forecast Diagnosed Incidence of Invasive Breast Cancer 23
Table 6: 8MM, Sources of Epidemiological Data Used to Forecast Invasive Breast Cancer by HER2 Status 24
Table 7: 8MM, Sources of Epidemiological Data Used to Forecast the Relative Survival of Invasive Breast Cancer 25
Table 8: 8MM, Sources of Epidemiological Data Used to Forecast HER2+ Invasive Breast Cancer by Stage at Diagnosis 26
Table 9: 8MM, Sources of Epidemiological Data Used to Forecast HER2-, HR+ Invasive Breast Cancer by Stage at Diagnosis 27
Table 10: 8MM, Sources of Epidemiological Data Used to Forecast TN Invasive Breast Cancer by Stage at Diagnosis 28
Table 11: 8MM, Sources of Epidemiological Data Used to Forecast HER2-Specific Invasive Breast Cancer by Menopausal Status 29
Table 12: 8MM, Sources of Epidemiological Data Used to Forecast HER2+ Invasive Breast Cancer by Site of Metastasis 30
Table 13: 8MM, Sources of Epidemiological Data Used to Forecast HER2-Specific Invasive Breast Cancer by Type of Biomarker Expression 31
Table 14: 8MM, Sources Not Used in Epidemiological Analysis of Breast Cancer 53
Table 15: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of Non-Invasive DCIS Breast Cancer, Women, Ages ≥18 Years, N, Select Years, 2015-2025 55
Table 16: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of Non-Invasive DCIS Breast Cancer by HER2 Status, Women, Ages ≥18 Years, N, 2015 57
Table 17: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of Invasive Breast Cancer, Women, Ages ≥18 Years, N, Select Years, 2015-2025 59
Table 18: 8MM, Age-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of Invasive Breast Cancer, Women, Ages ≥18 Years, N (Row %), 2015 61
Table 19: 8MM, Five-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Invasive Breast Cancer, Women, Ages ≥18 Years, N, Select Years, 2015-2025 64
Table 20: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of Invasive Breast Cancer by Stage at Diagnosis, Women, Ages ≥18 Years, N, 2015 66
Table 21: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of Invasive Breast Cancer by HER2 Status, Women, Ages ≥18 Years, N, 2015 68
1.2 List of Figures
Figure 1: 8MM, Crude Diagnosed Incidence Rates of Invasive Breast Cancer, Ages ≥18 Years, Women, Cases per 100,000 Population, 2005‒2014 14
Figure 2: Case Flow Map 20
Figure 3: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of Non-Invasive DCIS Breast Cancer, Women, Ages ≥18 Years, Selected Years, 2015-2025 56
Figure 4: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of Non-Invasive DCIS Breast Cancer by HER2 Status, Women, Ages ≥18 Years, 2015 58
Figure 5: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of Invasive Breast Cancer, Women, Ages ≥18 Years, Selected Years, 2015-2025 60
Figure 6: 8MM, Age-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of Invasive Breast Cancer, Women, Ages ≥18 Years, N, 2015 62
Figure 7: 8MM, Age-Standardized Diagnosed Incident Cases of Invasive Breast Cancer, Women, Ages ≥18 Years, N, 2015 63
Figure 8: 8MM, Five-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Invasive Breast Cancer, Women, Ages ≥18 Years, Select Years, 2015-2025 65
Figure 9: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of Invasive Breast Cancer by Stage at Diagnosis, Women, Ages ≥18 Years, 2015 67
Figure 10: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of Breast Cancer by HER2 Status, Women, Ages ≥18 Years, 2015 69
Figure 11: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of HER2+ Invasive Breast Cancer by Stage at Diagnosis, Women, Ages ≥18 Years, 2015 70
Figure 12: 8MM, Proportion of HER2+/HR+ Diagnosed Incident Cases of Invasive Breast Cancer by Menopausal Status, Women, Ages ≥18 Years, 2015 71
Figure 13: 8MM, Proportion of HER2+/HR- Diagnosed Incident Cases of Invasive Breast Cancer by Menopausal Status, Women, Ages ≥18 Years, 2015 72
Figure 14: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of HER2+ Invasive Breast Cancer by Site of Metastasis, Women, Ages ≥18 Years, 2015 73
Figure 15: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of HER2-/HR+ Invasive Breast Cancer by Stage at Diagnosis, Women, Ages ≥18 Years, 2015 74
Figure 16: 8MM, Proportion of HER2-/HR+ Diagnosed Incident Cases of Invasive Breast Cancer by Menopausal Status, Women, Ages ≥18 Years, 2015 75
Figure 17: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of HER2-/HR+ Invasive Breast Cancer by Type of Biomarker Expression, Women, Ages ≥18 Years, 2015 76
Figure 18: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of TN Invasive Breast Cancer by Stage at Diagnosis, Women, Ages ≥18 Years, 2015 77
Figure 19: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of TN Invasive Breast Cancer with BRCA Expression, Women, Ages ≥18 Years, 2015 78
