Summary
Hepatitis C is a blood-borne liver disease caused by the hepatitis C virus (HCV). HCV can cause both acute and chronic hepatitis infection. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), an estimated 130-150 million individuals worldwide are affected with chronic HCV and about 500,000 people died of HCV-related conditions, including liver cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), in 2010 (Lozano et al., 2012; WHO, 2015).
In the 9MM, GlobalData epidemiologists forecast that the anti-HCV+ total prevalent cases will increase from 19,842,780 total prevalent cases in 2015 to 20,886,113 total prevalent cases in 2025, at an Annual Growth Rate (AGR) of 0.53%. China will have the highest number of anti-HCV+ total prevalent cases among the 9MM throughout the forecast period, while Germany will have the lowest number of anti-HCV+ total prevalent cases. In the 9MM, GlobalData epidemiologists forecast that the HCV RNA+ total prevalent cases will increase from 9,932,624 total prevalent cases in 2015, to 10,399,601 total prevalent cases in 2025, at an AGR of 0.47%. In the 9MM, GlobalData epidemiologists forecast that the anti-HCV+ diagnosed prevalent cases will increase from 5,681,205 diagnosed prevalent cases in 2015, to 5,944,944 diagnosed prevalent cases in 2025, at an AGR of 0.46%. In the 9MM, GlobalData epidemiologists forecast that the HCV RNA+ diagnosed prevalent cases will increase from 2,992,433 diagnosed prevalent cases in 2015, to 3,115,901 diagnosed prevalent cases in 2025, at an AGR of 0.41%.
This forecast is supported by historical data from government reports and national studies published in peer-reviewed journals. All data used for the analysis were country-specific. All studies that were used confirmed anti-HCV+ and HCV RNA+ total prevalent cases through laboratory diagnostic tests. Also, GlobalData epidemiologists did not include studies that oversampled the high-risk population groups, such as IDUs, as we believe this would inflate the anti-HCV+ total prevalence. Furthermore, additional segmentation of the anti-HCV+ diagnosed prevalent cases by age, sex, and liver cirrhosis status will provide the most refined and granular forecast results. The forecast methodology was also consistent across the 9MM, thereby allowing for a meaningful comparison of the forecast numbers in these markets.
Scope
- The Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) EpiCast Report provides an overview of the risk factors and global trends of HCV in the 9MM (US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan, Brazil, and China). It includes a 10-year epidemiological forecast of the anti-HCV+ and HCV RNA+ total prevalent cases (including diagnosed and undiagnosed), which are segmented by sex and age. The anti-HCV+ total prevalent cases are further segmented by genotype, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) comorbidity, and hepatitis B virus (HBV) comorbidity among the 9MM. Additionally, the report also includes anti-HCV+ and HCV RNA+ diagnosed prevalent cases, which are also segmented by sex and age. The anti-HCV+ diagnosed prevalent cases are segmented by liver cirrhosis status.
- The HCV epidemiology report is written and developed by Masters- and PhD-level epidemiologists.
- The EpiCast Report is in-depth, high quality, transparent and market-driven, providing expert analysis of disease trends in the 9MM.
Reasons to buy
The HCV EpiCast report will allow you to -
- Develop business strategies by understanding the trends shaping and driving the global HCV market.
- Quantify patient populations in the global HCV market to improve product design, pricing, and launch plans.
- Organize sales and marketing efforts by identifying the age groups and sex that present the best opportunities for HCV therapeutics in each of the markets covered.
- Identify the percentage of HCV prevalent cases by genotype, HIV and HBV comorbidity, and liver cirrhosis status.
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1 Table of Contents
1 Table of Contents 6
1.1 List of Tables 7
1.2 List of Figures 9
2 Epidemiology 10
2.1 Disease Background 10
2.2 Risk Factors and Comorbidities 11
2.3 Global Trends 13
2.3.1 Diagnosed Incidence and Total Prevalence 14
2.3.2 Genotype 20
2.4 Forecast Methodology 20
2.4.1 Sources Used Tables 22
2.4.2 Forecast Assumptions and Methods 32
2.4.3 Sources Not Used 52
2.5 Epidemiological Forecast of HCV (2015-2025) 53
2.5.1 Total Prevalent Cases 53
2.5.2 Diagnosed Prevalent Cases 69
2.6 Discussion 84
2.6.1 Epidemiological Forecast Insight 84
2.6.2 Limitations of the Analysis 85
2.6.3 Strengths of the Analysis 86
3 Appendix 88
3.1 Bibliography 88
3.2 Physicians and Specialists Included in this Study 97
3.3 About the Authors 98
3.3.1 Epidemiologists 98
3.3.2 Reviewers 98
3.3.3 Global Director of Therapy Analysis and Epidemiology 99
3.4 About GlobalData 100
3.5 About EpiCast 100
3.6 Disclaimer 101
1.1 List of Tables
Table 1: Risk Factors and Comorbidities Associated with HCV Infection 12
Table 2: 9MM, Anti-HCV+ Total Prevalence from 1988-2015 14
Table 3: Hepatitis C Virus Genotype Description 20
Table 4: 9MM, Sources Used to Forecast Anti-HCV+ Total Prevalent Cases 22
Table 5: 9MM, Sources Used to Forecast HCV RNA+ Total Prevalent Cases 23
Table 6: 9MM, Sources Used to Forecast Anti-HCV+ Total Prevalent Cases by HCV Genotypes 24
Table 7: 9MM, Sources Used to Forecast HCV/HIV Co-Infection Cases Among Anti-HCV+ Total Prevalent Cases 26
Table 8: 9MM, Sources Used to Forecast HCV/HBV Co-Infection Cases Among Anti-HCV+ Total Prevalent Cases 27
Table 9: 9MM, Sources Used to Forecast Anti-HCV+ Diagnosed Prevalent Cases 28
Table 10: 9MM, Sources Used to Forecast HCV RNA+ Diagnosed Prevalent Cases 30
Table 11: 9MM, Sources Used for Anti-HCV+ Diagnosed Prevalent Cases by Liver Cirrhosis Status 31
Table 12: 9MM, Sources Not Used in Epidemiological Forecast for Anti-HCV+ Total Prevalent Cases 53
Table 13: 9MM, Anti-HCV+ Total Prevalent Cases, All Ages, Both Sexes, N, Selected Years 2015-2025 54
Table 14. 9MM, Anti-HCV+ Total Prevalent Cases, by Age, Both Sexes, N (Row %), 2015 56
Table 15: 9MM, Anti-HCV+ Total Prevalent Cases, by Sex, All Ages, N (Row %), 2015 58
Table 16: 9MM, Anti-HCV+ Total Prevalent Cases, by HCV Genotype, All Ages, N (Row %), Both Sexes, 2015 61
Table 17: 9MM, HCV RNA+ Total Prevalent Cases, All Ages, Both Sexes, N, Selected Years 2015-2025 63
Table 18. 9MM, HCV RNA+ Total Prevalent Cases, by Age, Both Sexes, N (Row %), 2015 65
Table 19: 9MM, HCV RNA+ Total Prevalent Cases, by Sex, All Ages, N (Row %), 2015 67
Table 20: 9MM, Anti-HCV+ Diagnosed Prevalent Cases, All Ages, Both Sexes, N, Selected Years 2015-2025 70
Table 21: 9MM, Age-Specific Anti-HCV+ Diagnosed Prevalent Cases, Both Sexes, N (Row %), 2015 72
Table 22: 9MM, Anti-HCV+ Diagnosed Prevalent Cases, by Sex, All Ages, N (Row %), 2015 74
Table 23: 9MM, HCV RNA+ Diagnosed Prevalent Cases, All Ages, Both Sexes, N, Selected Years 2015-2025 78
Table 24: 9MM, Age-Specific HCV RNA+ Diagnosed Prevalent Cases, Both Sexes, N (Row %), 2015 80
Table 25: 9MM, HCV RNA+ Diagnosed Prevalent Cases, by Sex, All Ages, N (Row %), 2015 82
Table 26: High-Prescribing Physicians (Non-KOLs), Surveyed by Country, 2016 97
1.2 List of Figures
Figure 1: 9MM, Anti-HCV+ Total Prevalent Cases, All Ages, Both Sexes, N, Selected Years 2015-2025 55
Figure 2: 9MM, Anti-HCV+ Total Prevalent Cases, by Age, Both Sexes, N, 2015 57
Figure 3: 9MM, Anti-HCV+ Total Prevalent Cases, All Ages, by Sex, N, 2015 59
Figure 4: 9MM, Age-Standardized Anti-HCV+ Total Prevalence, All Ages, by Sex, %, 2015 60
Figure 5: 9MM, HIV and HBV Co-Infections Among Anti-HCV+ Total Prevalent Cases, All Ages, Both Sexes, N, 2015 62
Figure 6: 9MM, HCV RNA+ Total Prevalent Cases, All Ages, Both Sexes, N, Selected Years, 2015-2025 64
Figure 7: 9MM, HCV RNA+ Total Prevalent Cases, by Age, Both Sexes, N, 2015 66
Figure 8: 9MM, HCV RNA+ Total Prevalent Cases, by Sex, N, 2015 68
Figure 9: 9MM, Age-Standardized HCV RNA+ Total Prevalence, All Ages, by Sex, %, 2015 69
Figure 10: 9MM, Anti-HCV+ Diagnosed Prevalent Cases, All Ages, Both Sexes, N, Selected Years 2015-2025 71
Figure 11: 9MM, Age-Specific Anti-HCV+ Diagnosed Prevalent Cases, Both Sexes, N, 2015 73
Figure 12: 9MM, Anti-HCV+ Diagnosed Prevalent Cases, All Ages, by Sex, N, 2015 75
Figure 13: 9MM, Age-Standardized Anti-HCV+ Diagnosed Prevalence, All Ages, by Sex, %, 2015 76
Figure 14: 9MM, Anti-HCV+ Diagnosed Prevalent Cases by Liver Cirrhosis Status, All Ages, Both Sexes, N, 2015 77
Figure 15: 9MM, HCV RNA+ Diagnosed Prevalent Cases, All Ages, Both Sexes, N, Selected Years 2015-2025 79
Figure 16: 9MM, Age-Specific HCV RNA+ Diagnosed Prevalent Cases, Both Sexes, N, 2015 81
Figure 17: 9MM, HCV RNA+ Diagnosed Prevalent Cases, All Ages, by Sex, N, 2015 83
Figure 18: 9MM, Age-Standardized HCV RNA+ Diagnosed Prevalence, All Ages, by Sex, %, 2015 84
