As Asia moves from voice to data, subscriber growth easesProviding a series of forecasts for subscriber growth in an extensive range of markets in Asia, this market report predominantly covers the fixed line, internet and mobile subscriber market segments. This edition covers 24 countries across Asia. Considerable attention is given in the report to developing economies in the region where the main segments of the market are more often than not in relatively early subscriber growth phases.
The report provides a series of what BuddeComm terms scenario forecasts. By describing long-range scenarios we identify a band within which we expect subscriber growth to occur. The associated text provides additional information on the market and describes what we consider to be the most likely growth trend within the identified band. The actual scenario forecasts are summarised in a series of tables for each country and market segment.
The scenario forecasting methodology applies our own historical market information, together with telecommunications sector statistics from official and non-official, national and international sources. We assume a possible deviation of 15-20% around this data. Where relevant, any statistics for GDP, revenue, etc, are quoted in US$, in order to maintain consistency within and between markets. At the same time we acknowledge that this can introduce some irregularities.
A set of sample tables are presented below, these being the actual scenario forecasts for Malaysia. The upper and lower scenarios forecasts in this instance are for the years 2017 and 2020, with estimates for 2015.
Malaysia - forecast - fixed-line subscribers – 2015; 2017; 2020
Year | Lower growth scenario | Higher growth scenario |
Subscribers (million) | Penetration | Subscribers (million) | Penetration |
2013 | 3.7 | 12.6% | 3.7 | 12.6% |
2014 (actual) | 3.6 | 12.1% | 3.6 | 12.1% |
2015 | 3.4 | 11.3% | 3.9 | 13.6% |
2017 | 3.2 | 10.6% | 4.1 | 13.6% |
2020 | 2.9 | 8.8% | 4.4 | 13.5% |
(Source: BuddeComm, forecasts)
Malaysia - forecast - fixed broadband internet subscribers – 2015; 2017; 2020
Year | Lower growth scenario | Higher growth scenario |
Subscribers1 | (million) | Penetration | Subscribers1 (million) | Penetration |
2013 | 2.9 | 10% | 2.9 | 10% |
2014 (actual) | 3.1 | 10% | 3.1 | 10% |
2015 | 3.2 | 10% | 3.2 | 10% |
2017 | 3.6 | 11% | 4.0 | 12% |
2020 | 4.2 | 12% | 5.5 | 16% |
(Source: BuddeComm, forecasts)
Note: 1includes only fixed broadband subscribers
Malaysia - forecast - mobile subscribers – 2015; 2017; 2020
Year | Lower growth scenario | Higher growth scenario |
Subscribers (million) | Penetration | Subscribers (million) | Penetration |
2013 | 43.0 | 145% | 43.0 | 145% |
2014 (actual) | 44.9 | 149% | 44.9 | 149% |
2015 | 45.0 | 150% | 46.0 | 151% |
2017 | 45.5 | 150% | 50.0 | 154% |
2020 | 50.0 | 152% | 55.0 | 166% |
(Source: BuddeComm, forecasts)
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1. Background notes relevant to our market forecasts
2. Afghanistan
2.1 Forecasts – internet subscribers – 2015; 2017; 2020
2.2 Forecasts – mobile subscribers – 2015;2017; 2020
2.3 Forecasts – mobile broadband subscribers – 2015;2017; 2020
3. Azerbaijan
3.1 Forecasts – fixed-line subscribers – 2015; 2017; 2020
3.2 Forecasts – fixed internet subscribers – 2015; 2017; 2020
3.3 Forecasts –mobile market – 2015; 2017; 2020
4. Bangladesh
4.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2015; 2017; 2020
4.2 Forecasts – internet services – 2015; 2017; 2020
4.2.1 Scenario forecasts – fixed broadband subscribers
4.3 Forecasts – mobile services – 2015; 2017; 2020
4.3.1 Scenario forecasts
5. Cambodia
5.1 Forecasts – Broadband services – 2015; 2020
5.2 Forecasts – mobile services – 2015; 2020
6. China
6.1 Forecast fixed-line subscribers – 2013-2018
6.2 Forecast broadband subscribers – 2017 - 2020
6.3 Forecast: Mobile Internet subscribers 2015-2020
7. Georgia
7.1 Forecasts – fixed-line subscribers – 2015; 2020
7.2 Forecasts – internet subscribers – 2015; 2020
7.3 Forecasts – mobile subscribers – 2015; 2020
8. Hong Kong
8.1 Forecasts – Fixed broadband subscribers – 2016; 2020
8.2 Forecast total mobile and 3G/LTE subscribers – 2016; 2020
9. India
9.1 Forecasts - fixed-line subscribers – 2015; 2017; 2020
9.2 Forecasts- internet services – 2015; 2017: 2020
9.3 Forecasts - Mobile services – 2015; 2017; 2020
10. Indonesia
10.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market: 2015; 2020
10.2 Forecasts – internet services – 2015; 2020
10.3 Forecasts – mobile market: 2015; 2020
11. Japan
11.1 Forecasts – broadband subscribers – 2015; 2017; 2020
11.2 Forecast: Mobile subscribers 2018-2020
12. Kazakhstan
12.1 Forecasts – fixed-line subscribers – 2015; 2020
13. Kyrgyzstan
13.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2015; 2020
14. Laos
14.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market - 2015; 2020
14.2 Forecasts – internet services - 2015; 2020
14.3 Forecasts – mobile services - 2015; 2020
15. Macau
15.1 Forecasts – fibre broadband subscribers – 2016; 2020
16. Malaysia
16.1 Forecasts – fixed-line subscribers – 2015; 2017; 2020
16.2 Forecasts – Fixed broadband internet subscribers – 2015; 2017; 2020
16.3 Forecasts – mobile services – 2015; 2017; 2020
17. Nepal
17.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2015; 2017; 2020
17.2 Forecasts – Internet services – 2015; 2017; 2020
17.3 Forecasts – mobile market – 2015; 2017; 2020
18. Pakistan
18.1 Forecasts – fixed line subscribers – 2015; 2017; 2020
18.2 Forecasts – Internet market – 2015; 2017; 2020
18.3 Forecasts – mobile subscribers – 2015; 2017; 2020
19. Philippines
19.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2015; 2020
19.2 Forecasts – Internet services – 2015; 2020
19.3 Forecasts – mobile services – 2015; 2020
20. South Korea
20.1 Forecast fixed-line subscribers – 2013 - 2015; 2018
20.2 Forecast broadband subscribers – 2013 - 2015; 2019
20.3 Forecast: Mobile subscribers 2014- 2016; 2019
21. Sri Lanka
21.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2015; 2017; 2020
21.2 Forecasts – Internet services – 2015; 2017; 2020
21.3 Forecasts – mobile services – 2015; 2017; 2020
22. Taiwan
22.1 Forecasts – FTTH subscribers – 2016; 2018; 2022
22.1.1 Scenario 1 – higher broadband subscriber growth
22.1.2 Scenario 2 – lower broadband subscriber growth
22.2 Forecast LTE mobile subscribers – 2015 (actual); 2017, 2021
23. Thailand
23.1 Forecasts – fixed-line subscribers – 2015; 2020
23.2 Forecasts – internet subscribers – 2015; 2020
23.3 Forecasts – mobile subscribers – 2015; 2020
24. Uzbekistan
24.1 Forecasts – fixed-line subscribers – 2015; 2017; 2020
24.2 Forecasts – fixed broadband internet subscribers – 2015; 2017; 2020
24.3 Forecasts – mobile subscribers – 2015; 2017; 2020
25. Vietnam
25.1 Forecasts – fixed-line subscribers – 2015; 2017; 2020
25.2 Forecasts – fixed broadband subscribers – 2015; 2017; 2020
Table 1 – Afghanistan - Forecast - fixed internet subscribers – 2015; 2017; 2020
Table 2 – Afghanistan - Forecast mobile subscribers – 2015; 2017; 2020
Table 3 – Afghanistan - Forecast – mobile broadband subscribers – 2015; 2017; 2020
Table 4 – Azerbaijan - Forecast fixed-line subscribers – 2015; 2017; 2020
Table 5 – Azerbaijan - Forecast fixed internet subscribers – 2015; 2017; 2020
Table 6 – Azerbaijan - Forecasts - mobile subscribers – 2015; 2017; 2020
Table 7 – Bangladesh - Forecast fixed line subscribers – 2015; 2017; 2020
Table 8 – Bangladesh - Forecast fixed broadband internet subscribers – 2015; 2017; 2020
Table 9 – Bangladesh - Forecast mobile subscribers – 2015; 2017; 2020
Table 10 – Cambodia - Forecast fixed broadband subscriber growth – 2015; 2020
Table 11 – Cambodia - Forecast mobile subscriber growth – 2015; 2020
Table 12 – China - Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration – lower band: 2014; 2018
Table 13 – China - Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration – higher band: 2014; 2018
Table 14 – China - Forecast broadband subscribers and population penetration – higher band: 2017; 2020
Table 15 – China - Forecast broadband subscribers and household penetration – lower band: 2017; 2020
Table 16 – China - Forecast Mobile Internet subscribers lower band forecast – 2015; 2020
Table 17 – China - Forecast Mobile Internet subscribers higher band forecast – 2015; 2020
Table 18 – Georgia - Forecast fixed line subscribers – 2015; 2020
Table 19 – Georgia - Forecast fixed internet subscribers – 2015; 2020
Table 20 – Georgia - Forecast mobile subscribers – 2015; 2020
Table 21 – Hong Kong - Forecast broadband subscribers and penetration - higher band: - 2016; 2020
Table 22 – Hong Kong - Forecast broadband subscribers and penetration - lower band: - 2016; 2020
Table 23 – Hong Kong - Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration higher band forecast – 2016; 2020
Table 24 – Hong Kong - Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration lower band forecast – 2016; 2020
Table 25 – India - Forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2017; 2020
Table 26 – India - Forecast fixed internet subscribers – 2015; 2017; 2020
Table 27 – India - Forecast mobile subscribers – 2015; 2017; 2020
Table 28 – Indonesia - Forecast of fixed line subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2020
Table 29 – Indonesia - Forecast of fixed broadband subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2020
Table 30 – Indonesia - Forecast of mobile subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2020
Table 31 – Japan - Forecast fixed broadband subscribers and penetration – 2018; 2020
Table 32 – Japan - Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration – 2018; 2020
Table 33 – Kazakhstan - Forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2020
Table 34 – Kyrgyzstan - Forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2020
Table 35 – Laos - Forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2020
Table 36 – Laos - Forecast fixed internet subscribers – 2015; 2020
Table 37 – Laos - Forecast mobile subscribers – 2015; 2020
Table 38 – Macau - Scenario 1 – Higher fibre broadband subscriber growth
Table 39 – Macau - Scenario 2 – Lower fibre broadband subscriber growth
Table 40 – Malaysia - Forecast fixed-line subscribers – 2015; 2017; 2020
Table 41 – Malaysia - Forecast - fixed broadband internet subscribers – 2015; 2017; 2020
Table 42 – Malaysia - Forecast mobile subscribers – 2015; 2017; 2020
Table 43 – Nepal - Forecast fixed line subscribers – 2015; 2017; 2020
Table 44 – Nepal - Forecast fixed internet subscribers – 2015; 2017; 2020
Table 45 – Nepal - Forecast mobile subscribers – 2015; 2017; 2020
Table 46 – Pakistan - Forecast fixed line subscribers – 2015; 2017; 2020
Table 47 – Pakistan - Forecast fixed broadband internet subscribers – 2015; 2017; 2020
Table 48 – Pakistan - Forecast mobile subscribers – 2015; 2017; 2020
Table 49 – Philippines - Forecast fixed line subscribers – 2015; 2020
Table 50 – Philippines - Forecast internet subscribers – 2015; 2020
Table 51 – Philippines - Forecast mobile subscribers – 2015; 2020
Table 52 – South Korea - Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration - higher band: 2013 - 2015; 2018
Table 53 – South Korea - Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration - lower band: 2013 - 2015; 2018
Table 54 – South Korea - Forecast broadband subscribers and penetration – higher band: 2013 - 2015; 2019
Table 55 – South Korea - Forecast broadband subscribers and penetration – lower band: 2013 - 2015; 2019
Table 56 – South Korea - Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration lower band forecast – 2014 - 2016; 2019
Table 57 – South Korea - Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration higher band forecast – 2014 - 2016; 2019
Table 58 – Sri Lanka - Forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration rate – 2015; 2017; 2020
Table 59 – Sri Lanka - Forecast fixed broadband internet subscribers and penetration – 2015; 2017; 2020
Table 60 – Sri Lanka - Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration rate – 2015; 2017; 2020
Table 61 – Taiwan - Forecast FTTH broadband subscribers and penetration - higher band: 2016, 2018; 2022
Table 62 – Taiwan - Forecast FTTH broadband subscribers and penetration - lower band: 2016, 2018; 2022
Table 63 – Taiwan - Forecast LTE mobile subscribers and penetration – higher band: 2017; 2021
Table 64 – Taiwan - Forecast LTE mobile subscribers and penetration – lower band: 2017; 2021
Table 65 – Thailand - Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration rate – 2015; 2020
Table 66 – Thailand - Forecast fixed broadband internet subscribers and penetration – 2015; 2020
Table 67 – Thailand - Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration rate –2015; 2020
Table 68 – Uzbekistan - Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2017; 2020
Table 69 – Uzbekistan - Forecasts - fixed broadband internet subscribers – 2015; 2017; 2020
Table 70 – Uzbekistan - Forecasts - mobile subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2017; 2020
Table 71 – Vietnam - Forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2017; 2020
Table 72 – Vietnam - Forecast fixed broadband subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2017; 2020
