The marketplace for natural and organic foods and beverages is undergoing tremendous expansion and change. At the retail level, while Whole Foods Market remains the dominant natural foods supermarket chain, it is being challenged by Trader Joe's and by No. 1 supermarket operator Kroger Co., which maintains almost 2,800 stores across the country under regional banners including Kroger, Ralph's, and Harris Teeter. Kroger now sells about $11 billion in natural and organic products annually, making it the third-largest player in this market after Whole Foods and Trader Joe's. Meanwhile, drawn by attractive consumer demographics, a higher growth rate than conventional foods, and a healthier aura, major food companies and private equity firms are buying or making large investments in natural and organic food and beverage companies. For example, in July 2016, France's Danone SA announced that it will acquire The WhiteWave Foods Co. in a $10 billion transaction by the end of 2016, while General Mills claims it is now the third largest natural and organic food maker in the United States. In addition, responding to consumer demand for more company transparency and cleaner formulation, big brands are overhauling products and portfolios in hopes of winning over natural-leaning consumers. Many consumers seek out organic (36% of the 1,914 U.S. respondents surveyed) or natural foods and beverages (42%) when shopping for food. In particular, a good selection of organic fruits and vegetables can be a game-changer in determining where consumers grocery shop.
Scope and Methodology
This completely revised report, "Natural and Organic Foods in the U.S., Fifth Edition", is divided into six chapters. After the Executive Summary, the Overview chapter presents an overview of this dynamic market segment, analyzing sales and growth potential, and identifying key issues and trends that will affect the marketplace through 2021. The next chapter, Retail Trends, examines the upsurge of retail competition, profiling 17 retailers including Albertsons, Amazon.com, Costco, Farmers Markets, Fresh Thyme Farmers Market, Kroger, Sprouts Farmers Market, Trader Joe's, Walmart, Whole Foods Market, and more. The Marketers chapter lists major marketers and their natural/organic brands, discusses the influx of private label into this marketplace, and profiles seven key marketers and their marketing positions. Marketing and New Product Trends highlights key trend in the natural/organic market, including clean label, ingredients trends, and trends by food and beverage categories. The Consumer chapter analyzes data from a proprietary National Consumer Survey conducted in July-August 2016, examining consumer attitudes and behaviors toward natural/organic foods and beverages as well as retail shopping patterns. Included are copious tables, charts, graphs, and illustrations that reinforce and make points in the text easy to grasp.
In addition to the consumer survey, our primary research for "Natural and Organic Foods in the U.S." entailing interviews with members of the industry, and on-site examination of products in retail stores. Secondary research involved evaluating and comparing data and reports from government agencies such as the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) and trade associations such as the Organic Trade Association (OTA); and reviewing more than 600 articles in consumer and industry publications, websites, and blogs; annual reports, earnings call transcripts, and marketing literature of individual companies; and other reports . Secondary research involved evaluating and comparing data and reports from government agencies such as the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) and trade associations such as the Organic Trade Association (OTA); and reviewing more than 600 articles in consumer and industry publications, websites, and blogs; annual reports, earnings call transcripts, and marketing literature of individual companies; and other reports .
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- Chapter 1: Executive Summary
- Overview
- Scope of Report
- Report Methodology
- Defining and Re-defining “Natural”
- Definition of “Organic”
- Retail Sales of Natural/Organic Foods and Beverages Will Reach
- $69.4 Billion in 2016
- Produce Is the Largest Category
- Supermarkets, Natural Foods Stores, Warehouse Clubs Battle for
- Market Share
- Consumer Drivers for Buying Natural/Organic Foods and Beverages
- Organic Farming Takes Root
- The GMO Debate
- U.S. Retail Sales Will Approach $118 Billion by 2021
- Retail Trends
- Upsurge of Competition in Natural Foods
- Retailer Profiles
- Albertsons Cos.
- Amazon.com
- Costco Wholesale Corp.
- Farmers’ Markets
- Fresh Thyme Farmers Market
- The Kroger Co.
- Sprouts Farmers Market
- Trader Joe’s
- Walmart
- Whole Foods
- The Marketers
- Many Thousands of Marketers
- More Acquisitions, Investments, and Funding
- Private-Label Natural and Organic Products Proliferating
- Natural and Organic Foods and Beverages in the U.S. Table of Contents
- September 2016 © Packaged Facts ii
- Competitor Profiles
- Amy’s Kitchen
- Campbell Soup Co.
- Danone SA
- General Mills
- The Hain Celestial Group
- Organic Valley
- Pinnacle Foods
- Marketing and New Product Trends
- Going Clean
- Ingredients Trends
- Avocados
- Beets Are Red Hot
- Chickpeas and Other Beans Transformed
- Grass-Fed Proteins Gaining Momentum
- Plant-Based Foods
- New Product Trends by Category
- Consumer Trends
- Packaged Facts National Consumer Survey
- Many Consumers Seek Out Organic and Natural Foods and Beverages .
- Figure 1-1 Consumers Who Especially Look for Organic or Natural
- Foods When Grocery Shopping, 2016 (percent of U.S. adults)
- Organic Foods and Beverages Attract Shoppers to Stores
- Two Out of Five Consumers Buying More Organic or Natural Foods
- Only 45% of Consumers Trust “Organic” or “Natural” Labels
- Information Consumers Want Most on Package Labels
- Consumer Attitudes Toward Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs)
- Simmons National Consumer Survey
- Three Out of 10 Households Seek Out Organic or Natural Foods
- Fruit and Vegetables Are Top Organic Categories
- Ethnicity, Socio-Economics Differentiate Organic or Natural Food
- Shoppers
- Natural and Organic Foods and Beverages in the U.S. Table of Contents
- September 2016 © Packaged Facts iii
- Chapter 2: Overview
- Key Points
- Scope of Report
- Report Methodology
- Some Foodservice Crossover
- Defining and Re-defining “Natural”
- Definition of “Organic”
- Market Size and Growth
- Methodology for Sales Estimates
- A Range of Sales Estimates from Different Sources
- Retail Sales Projected at $69.4 Billion in 2016
- Table 2-1 U.S. Retail Sales of Natural and Organic Foods and
- Beverages, 2012-2016 (in billions of dollars)
- Organic Foods and Beverages: A Larger Slice of a Bigger Pie
- Figure 2-1 Share of U.S. Retail Sales of Natural and Organic Foods and
- Beverages by Market Segment: Natural vs. Organic, 2016 vs. 2012
- (percent)
- Produce and Dairy Are the Largest Categories
- Figure 2-2 Share of U.S. Retail Sales of Natural and Organic Foods
- and Beverages by Product Category, 2016 (percent)
- Supermarkets, Natural Food Stores, Warehouse Clubs Battle for
- Share
- Figure 2-3 Share of U.S. Retail Sales of Natural and Organic Foods
- and Beverages by Retail Channel, 2016 (percent)
- Market Outlook
- Most Consumers Buy Natural and/or Organic Products
- Consumer Drivers for Buying Natural/Organic Foods and Beverages ..
- Widening Distribution Channels Also Driving Increased Sales
- Produce and Dairy Are ‘Gateway’ Categories for Organic Foods
- Organic Farming Takes Root
- Illustration 2-1 Number of Certified Organic Farms by State, 2015
- Figure 2-4 Top Dairy, Poultry, and Meat Sales, 2015
- Figure 2-5 Top Organic Crops, 2015
- Some Organic Products in Short Supply
- The GMO Debate
- Litigation Over the Meaning of “Natural”
- Natural and Organic Foods and Beverages in the U.S. Table of Contents
- September 2016 © Packaged Facts iv
- Projected Market Growth
- U.S. Retail Sales Will Approach $118 Billion by 2021
- Table 2-2 Projected U.S. Retail Sales of Natural and Organic Foods
- and Beverages, 2016-2021 (in billions of dollars)
- Chapter 3: Retail Trends
- Key Points
- Overview
- Upsurge of Competition in Natural Foods
- Table 3-1 Selected Leading Natural and Organic Foods Competitors,2016
- Retailer Profiles
- Ahold Delhaize
- Albertsons Cos.
- ALDI Inc.
- Illustration 3-1 ALDI’s SimplyNature Private-Label Line
- Amazon.com—AmazonFresh, Prime Pantry, and Prime Now
- Illustration 3-2 AmazonFresh Delivery Truck in Los Angeles
- Costco Wholesale Corp. Strengthens Organic Position
- CVS Expanding Selection of Healthier Foods and Beverages
- Fairway Market Emerges from Bankruptcy
- Farmers’ Markets Grow to Almost 8,700 Nationwide
- Figure 3-1 Growth in the Number of Farmers Markets, 1994-2016
- The Fresh Market Pulls Back, Goes Private
- Illustration 3-3 The Fresh Market
- Fresh Thyme Farmers Market Rolls Out in the Midwest
- Illustration 3-4 Fresh Thyme Farmers Market
- The Kroger Co.
- Illustration 3-5 Kroger Simple Truth and Simple Truth Organic
- Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Planning Major Expansion
- Illustration 3-6 Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, “Eco Hip Hop”
- Demonstration
- Sprouts Farmers Market Appears to Have a Winning Formula
- Illustration 3-7 Sprouts Farmers Market Layout
- Target Corp. Recasting its Grocery Business Again
- Illustration 3-8 Target “Made to Matter” Program Participants, 2016
- Thrive Market
- Trader Joe’s
- Natural and Organic Foods and Beverages in the U.S. Table of Contents
- September 2016 © Packaged Facts v
- Walmart Forays into Organic Foods—Again
- Illustration 3-9 Walmart Ad for Great Value Organic Line
- Whole Foods Market Feeling the Heat of Competition
- 365 by Whole Foods Market: Streamlined and Value-Priced
- Illustration 3-10 365 by Whole Foods Market, Silver Lake, Los Angeles,
- Exterior
- Chapter 4: The Marketers
- Key Points
- Marketer Overview
- Many Thousands of Marketers
- More Acquisitions, Investments, and Funding
- Illustration 4-1 Who Owns Organic Chart
- Recent Mergers and Acquisitions
- July 2016
- June 2016
- May 2016
- March 2016
- January 2016
- October 2015
- September 2015
- August 2015
- July 2015
- June 2015
- May 2015
- February 2015
- January 2015
- Private-Label Natural and Organic Products Proliferating
- Amy’s Kitchen, Inc.
- The Nation’s Leading Organic Frozen Foods Brand
- Campbell Soup Co
- Danone SA
- General Mills, Inc.
- Illustration 4-2 General Mills Q4 2016 Earnings Call (July 29, 2016):
- Natural and Organic Portfolio
- The Hain Celestial Group, Inc. Challenged by Growing Competition ..
- Organic Valley
- Owned by a Cooperative of Farmers
- Pinnacle Foods Group Sees Health and Wellness as a Key to Growth .. 109
- Natural and Organic Foods and Beverages in the U.S. Table of Contents
- September 2016 © Packaged Facts vi
- Chapter 5: Marketing and New Product Trends
- Key Points
- Marketing Trends
- Going Clean
- Illustration 5-1 Beech-Nut Website Lists Exact Percentages of
- Ingredients
- Kashi Launches New ‘Certified Transitional’ Label
- Illustration 5-2 Certified Transitional Label
- Ingredients Trends
- Avocados
- Illustration 5-3 Kettle Brand Chips Cooked in 100% Avocado Oil
- Beets Are Red Hot
- Chickpeas and Other Beans Transformed
- Illustration 5-4 Love Grown Foods Kid-Friendly Cereals Made from
- Beans
- Functional and Fortified Foods and Beverages
- Grass-Fed Proteins Gaining Momentum
- Illustration 5-5 Carl’s Jr. All-Natural Grass-Fed Burger
- Plant-Based Foods
- Illustration 5-6 Beyond Meat Beyond Burger
- Jackfruit, an Old World Plant Meat
- Illustration 5-7 Upton’s Natural Jackfruit
- Turmeric and Matcha
- Illustration 5-8 Califia Farms Ginger Almondmilk and Matcha
- Almondmilk
- Illustration 5-9 Numi Organic Tea Turmeric Chai and Turmeric Cocoa ...
- New Product Trends by Category
- Frozen Meals
- Illustration 5-10 Lean Cuisine Marketplace Entrées
- Illustration 5-11 Healthy Choice Simply Café Steamers
- Illustration 5-12 Evol Cups
- Illustration 5-13 Evol Lasagnas and Enchiladas
- Illustration 5-14 Amy’s Kitchen Gluten-Free Rice-Crust Pizza
- Illustration 5-15 Amy’s Kitchen Swirls
- Illustration 5-16 Michael Angelo’s Made with Organic Frozen Meals
- Illustration 5-17 Eating Well Frozen Entrées
- Illustration 5-18 Good Food Made Simple Entrée Bowls
- Illustration 5-19 Grainful Steel Cut Meals
- Soups
- Refrigerated Soups
- Illustration 5-20 Blount Organic Soups
- Illustration 5-21 Tio Gazpacho Chilled Drinkable Soup
- Illustration 5-22 Sonoma Brands Züpa Noma Chilled Drinkable Soup
- Illustration 5-23 Fawen Drinkable Soup
- Shelf-Stable Soups
- Illustration 5-24 Campbell’s Well Yes Soup
- Illustration 5-25 Campbell’s Organic Soups
- Illustration 5-26 Campbell’s Organic Kids Soups
- Illustration 5-27 Annie’s Organic Soups
- Illustration 5-28 Back to Nature Ancient Grains Soups
- Illustration 5-29 Eden Foods Instant Miso Soup Cubes
- Dairy Case
- Got Milk?
- Illustration 5-30 Horizon Organic Single-Serve Chocolate Milk
- Illustration 5-31 Organic Valley Good-to-Go Single-Serve Chocolate
- Milk
- Illustration 5-32 WhiteWave Foods Sir Bananas
- Non-Dairy Milk Alternatives
- Illustration 5-33 Jindilli Beverages Milkadamia Macadamia Milk
- Illustration 5-34 Silk Cashewmilk
- Illustration 5-35 Silk Nutchello
- Illustration 5-36 Bolthouse Farms 1915 Bolthouse Farms Organic
- Protein Beverages
- Yogurt
- Illustration 5-37 Organic Valley Grassmilk Yogurt
- Illustration 5-38 Annie’s Organic Yogurt
- Illustration 5-39 Liberté Organic Yogurt
- Illustration 5-40 Drink Chobani Drinkable Greek Yogurt
- Illustration 5-41 Chobani Meze Dips
- Illustration 5-42 Noosa Yoghurt Sweet Heat Yogurts
- Illustration 5-43 Chobani Ancient Grains Greek Yogurt
- Illustration 5-44 The Greek Gods Yogurt with Chia Seeds
- Fresh Produce
- Illustration 5-45 Earthbound Farm Organic Salad Kits
- Illustration 5-46 Earthbound Farm Organic Crunchy Slaw Blends
- Illustration 5-47 Ready Pac elevAte Organic Salad Kits
- Breads
- Illustration 5-48 Dave’s Killer Bread
- Illustration 5-49 Rudi’s Organic Bakery Kids Bread
- Cereals and Cereal Bars
- Illustration 5-50 Annie’s Organic Cereals
- Illustration 5-51 Kashi Overnight Muesli
- Snacks
- Snack Bars
- Illustration 5-52 Lärabar Organic with Superfoods Bars
- Illustration 5-53 Clif Bar Clif Kid Zbar Fruit & Veggie
- Illustration 5-54 Clif Bar Nut Butter Filled Energy Bars
- Jerky Snacks
- Illustration 5-55 Organic Prairie Mighty Bar
- Illustration 5-56 Krave Bar
- Fruit and Vegetable Snack Pouches
- Illustration 5-57 Shine Organics Snack Pouches
- Desserts and Sweets
- Better-for-You Baked Goods
- Illustration 5-58 Pure Genius Blondies and Brownies
- Illustration 5-59 Back to Nature Ancient Grains Cookies
- Illustration 5-60 Hidden Garden Cookies
- Illustration 5-61 ColorKitchen Food Colors
- Illustration 5-62 Miss Jones Baking Co.
- Illustration 5-63 Pillsbury Purely Simple Baking Mixes
- Non-Chocolate Candy Goes Organic
- Illustration 5-64 Jelly Belly Organic Jelly Beans
- Illustration 5-65 Black Forest Organic Candies
- Baby and Kid-Targeted Foods
- Illustration 5-66 Beech-Nut Organics Baby Foods
- Illustration 5-67 OrgaNums HPP Baby Foods
- Illustration 5-68 Plum Organics Mighty Dinos Crackers
- Illustration 5-69 Plum Organics Mighty Mealtime Meal Kits
- Illustration 5-70 Peas of Mind Veggie Tots
- Beverages with Benefits
- Hydration Beverages
- Illustration 5-71 Elmhurst Naturals Banana Water
- Illustration 5-72 Blossom Water’s Blossom Water
- Illustration 5-73 Bulletproof Nutrition’s FATwater
- Illustration 5-74 CORE Organic Water
- Illustration 5-75 G Organic
- Cold-Pressed, High Pressure Processed Juices
- Illustration 5-76 Naked Pressed Juice
- Juice Drinks
- Illustration 5-77 Capri Sun Organic Juice Drinks
- Illustration 5-78 Santa Cruz Organics Agua Fresca
- Drinking Vinegars
- Illustration 5-79 Live Soda Live Drinking Vinegars
- Cold Brew Coffee
- Illustration 5-80 Califia Farms Nitro Cold Brew
- Illustration 5-81 Happy Tree Maple Water Cold Brew Coffee
- Ready-to-Drink and Bagged Teas
- Illustration 5-82 Arteasan Teas
- Illustration 5-83 Celestial Seasonings Sleepytime Mint Tea
- Chapter 6: Consumer Trends
- Key Points
- Packaged Facts Proprietary Consumer Survey
- Many Consumers Seek Out Organic and Natural Foods and
- Beverages
- Figure 6-1 Consumers Who Especially Look for Organic or Natural
- Foods When Grocery Shopping, 2016 (percent of U.S. adults)
- Consumers Shopping Multiple Channels
- Organic Foods and Beverages Attract Shoppers to Stores
- Figure 6-2 Where Consumers Shop for Groceries by Retail Channel,
- 2016 (percent of U.S. adults)
- Figure 6-3 Importance of Organic Foods to Where Consumers Shop for Groceries, 2016 (percent of U.S. adults)
- Two Out of Five Consumers Buying More Organic or Natural Foods ..
- Figure 6-4 Buying More Organic or Natural Foods than Two Years Ago,2016 (percent of U.S. adults)
- Half of Consumers Believe Organic or Natural Foods Are Healthier ...
- Figure 6-5 Organic or Natural Foods Are Healthier Than Regular
- Foods, 2016 (percent of U.S. adults)
- No Artificial Ingredients Outweighs Organic in Packaged Foods
- Figure 6-6 Prefer to Buy Organic Packaged Foods vs. Packaged Foods
- With No Artificial Ingredients, 2016 (percent of U.S. adults)
- Only 45% of Consumers Trust “Organic” or “Natural” Labels
- Figure 6-7 Consumers Who Trust Labels Saying Foods and Beverages
- Are Organic or Natural, 2016 (percent of U.S. adults)
- Willing to Pay More for Organic—But Think It Costs Too Much
- Figure 6-8 Level of Agreement with the Statement: “I am willing to pay more for organic foods and beverages,” 2016 (percent of U.S. adults) . 204
- Figure 6-9 Level of Agreement with the Statement: “I think retail stores and manufacturers charge too much for organic foods and beverages,” 2016 (percent of U.S. adults)
- Information Consumers Want Most on Package Labels
- Consumer Attitudes Toward Food
- Figure 6-10 Information Consumers Want Most on Packaged Food
- Labels, 2016 (percent of U.S. adults)
- Figure 6-11 Consumer Attitudes Toward Healthy Food, 2016(percent of U.S. adults)
- Consumer Attitudes Toward Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs) .. 207
- Figure 6-12 Consumer Attitudes Toward Genetically Modified
- Organisms (GMOs), 2016 (percent of U.S. adults)
- Consumer Attitudes Toward Social Responsibility
- Figure 6-13 Consumer Attitudes Toward Sustainability, 2016(percent of U.S. adults)
- Simmons National Consumer Study
- Methodology
- Three Out of 10 Households Seek Out Organic or Natural Foods
- Nearly Half Prefer Foods Without Artificial Additives
- Table 6-1 Consumers Who Prefer Foods Without Artificial Additives;
- Who Look for Organic or Natural Foods; and Who Buy Natural or
- Organic Foods When Watching Their Diet, 2012-2016 (percent and number in millions)
- Fruit and Vegetables Are Top Organic Categories
- Table 6-2 Top Product Categories for Consumers Purchasing Organic
- Foods Most Often, 2012 vs. 2016 (percent)
- Ethnicity, Socio-Economics Differentiate Organic or Natural Food Shoppers
- Table 6-3 High-Index Demographics for Consumers Who Agree with the
- Statement, “When Shopping for Food, I Especially Look for Organic or Natural Foods,” 2016 (index)
- Table 6-4 Demographic Overview of Consumers Who Agree with the
- Statement, “When Shopping for Food, I Especially Look for Organic or Natural Foods,” 2016 (percent, number and index)
- Asian-Americans, Educated Consumers, Homemakers Avoid
- Additives
- Table 6-5 High-Index Demographics for Consumers Who Agree with the
- Statement, “I Prefer to Eat Foods Without Artificial Additives,” 2016(index)
- Table 6-6 Demographic Overview of Consumers Who Agree with the
- Statement, “I Prefer to Eat Foods Without Artificial Additives,” 2016(percent, number and index)
- Attitudes Toward Food and Cooking
- Table 6-7 Attitudes Toward Food and Cooking: Consumers Who Look for Organic or Natural Foods, and Consumers Who Prefer Foods
- Without Artificial Additives, 2016 (percent and index)
- Attitudes Toward Nutrition and Health
- Table 6-8 Attitudes Toward Nutrition and Health: Consumers Who
- Look for Organic or Natural Foods, and Consumers Who Prefer
- Foods Without Artificial Additives, 2016 (percent and index)
- Other Surveys
- International Food Information Council Foundation Survey
- Figure 6-14 How Consumers Define a Healthy Eating Style, 2016
- Figure 6-15 How Consumers Define “Natural” Foods, 2016
- Wedbush Securities Consumer Survey
- Consumer Reports Labels Survey
