Summary
GlobalData raised its forecast for Colombia’s construction output growth to 13.6% in 2021 from 11.9% previously, after posting an upwardly revised decline of 25.8% in 2020. Over the remainder of the forecast period (2022-2025), growth is expected to moderate to an annual average of 6.5%. The higher forecast for 2021 reflects favorable base effects and the stronger-than-expected construction activity in Q1 2021, despite the second wave of Coronavirus (COVID-19) infections. The forecast also assumes additional progress in vaccine rollouts, which will allow hard-hit sectors such as retail, office and leisure and hospitality to recover faster over the next quarters. Improving external conditions amid higher oil prices and strong US growth are also expected to bode well for business investment and growth over the rest of the year, while a looser fiscal position ahead of the presidential election next year will further help drive domestic demand.
Figures from National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE) showed that construction output in Colombia rose for the third successive quarter during Q1 2021, rising by 17% quarter-on-quarter (Q-o-Q) in Q1 2021, from an upwardly revised increase of 0.1% in Q4 2020 (-0.2% previously). The infrastructure segment posted the biggest increase (14.4%), followed by residential and non-residential buildings (5.7%) and specialized works (4.8%). The stronger-than-expected quarterly performance in Q1 will probably be followed by a marked slowdown in Q2, as the economy took a hit in May due to nationwide protests over the now withdrawn tax reform which caused roadblocks and shortages of key inputs, and made it difficult for construction workers to reach their job sites. Many construction works throughout the country were, as a result, affected or stopped in recent months. According to the Colombian Chamber of Construction (CAMACOL), there were over 1,700 construction projects affected across country due to the road blockades as of May 26th, 2021, and over 1.3 million jobs in the same situation as of June 9th, 2021, as workers have not been able to travel to construction sites.
The government’s focus on infrastructure and the continuity of programs that promote the development and financing of housing, such as Viviendas de Interest Social or Social Interest Housing (VIS) and non-VIS, is nevertheless expected to support the expansion of the industry in the second half of 2021 (H1 2021). CAMACOL projects that 232,300 housing units (160,980 VIS units and 71,315 non-VIS units) will be sold by the end of this year, in an increase of 13.4% compared to 2020. It also projects that the construction of 166,016 new home units will start. Moreover, ongoing efforts to accelerate the completion of Colombia’s fourth generation (4G) road infrastructure program and push forward with plans of its fifth generation (5G) concessions program should continue to drive the industry’s growth in the quarters ahead.
GlobalData’s Construction in Colombia - Key Trends and Opportunities to 2025 (H2 2021) report provides detailed market analysis, information and insights into Colombia’s construction industry, including -
- Colombia’s construction industry's growth prospects by market, project type and construction activity
- Critical insight into the impact of industry trends and issues, as well as an analysis of key risks and opportunities in Colombia’s construction industry
- Analysis of the mega-project pipeline, focusing on development stages and participants, in addition to listings of major projects in the pipeline.
Scope
This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the construction industry in Colombia. It provides -
- Historical (2016-2020) and forecast (2021-2025) valuations of the construction industry in Colombia, featuring details of key growth drivers.
- Segmentation by sector (commercial, industrial, infrastructure, energy and utilities, institutional and residential) and by sub-sector
- Analysis of the mega-project pipeline, including breakdowns by development stage across all sectors, and projected spending on projects in the existing pipeline.
- Listings of major projects, in addition to details of leading contractors and consultants
Reasons to Buy
- Identify and evaluate market opportunities using GlobalData's standardized valuation and forecasting methodologies.
- Assess market growth potential at a micro-level with over 600 time-series data forecasts.
- Understand the latest industry and market trends.
- Formulate and validate strategy using GlobalData's critical and actionable insight.
- Assess business risks, including cost, regulatory and competitive pressures.
- Evaluate competitive risk and success factors.
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Table of Contents
1 Executive Summary
2 Construction Industry: At-a-Glance
3 Context
3.1 Economic Performance
3.2 Political Environment and Policy
3.3 Demographics
3.4 COVID-19 Status
3.5 Risk Profile
4 Construction Outlook
4.1 All Construction
- Outlook
- Latest news and developments
- Construction Projects Momentum Index
4.2 Commercial Construction
- Outlook
- Project analytics
- Latest news and developments
4.3 Industrial Construction
- Outlook
- Project analytics
- Latest news and developments
4.4 Infrastructure Construction
- Outlook
- Project analytics
- Latest news and developments
4.5 Energy and Utilities Construction
- Outlook
- Project analytics
- Latest news and developments
4.6 Institutional Construction
- Outlook
- Project analytics
- Latest news and developments
4.7 Residential Construction
- Outlook
- Project Analytics
- Latest news and developments
5 Key Industry Participants
5.1 Contractors
5.2 Consultants
6 Construction Market Data
7 Appendix
7.1 What is this Report About?
7.2 Definitions
7.3 CRI Methodology
7.4 GlobalData Construction
Contact Us
List of Tables
Table 1: Construction Industry Key Data
Table 2: Colombia, Key Economic Indicators
Table 3: Colombia, Commercial Construction Output by Project Type (Real % Change), 2016-2025
Table 4: Colombia, Top Commercial Construction Projects by Value
Table 5: Colombia, Industrial Construction Output by Project Type (Real % Change), 2016-2025
Table 6: Colombia, Top Industrial Construction Projects by Value
Table 7: Colombia, Infrastructure Construction Output by Project Type (Real % Change), 2016-2025
Table 8: Colombia, Top Infrastructure Construction Projects by Value
Table 9: Colombia, Energy and Utilities Construction Output by Project Type (Real % Change), 2016-2025
Table 10: Colombia, Top Energy and Utilities Construction Projects by Value
Table 11: Colombia, Institutional Construction Output by Project Type (Real % Change), 2016-2025
Table 12: Colombia, Top Institutional Construction Projects by Value
Table 13: Colombia, Residential Construction Output by Project Type (Real % Change), 2016-2025
Table 14: Colombia, Top Residential Construction Projects by Value
Table 15: Colombia, Key Contractors
Table 16: Colombia, Key Consultants
Table 17: Colombia, Construction Output Value (Real, US$ Million)
Table 18: Colombia, Construction Output Value (Nominal, COP Billion)
Table 19: GlobalData Construction Market Definitions
Table 20: Risk Dimensions
Table 21: Ratings, Scores and Definitions
List of Figures
Figure 1: South and Central America, Construction Output (Real % Change), 2020 and 2021
Figure 2: Colombia, Construction Projects Pipeline by Sector (US$ Billion)
Figure 3: Colombia, COVID-19 Confirmed Cases
Figure 4: Colombia, Risk Summary
Figure 5: Colombia, Risk Regional Comparison
Figure 6: Colombia, Construction Output Value (Real, US$ Billion, 2017 Prices and Exchange Rate), 2016-2025
Figure 7: Colombia, Construction Output Value, by Sector (Real, US$ Million), 2016-2025
Figure 8: Colombia, Construction Value-Add (COP Billion, 2015 Chained Prices), Y-o-Y % Change
Figure 9: Colombia, Total Area Approved for Construction, In Thousand m2
Figure 10: Colombia, Construction Confidence Index
Figure 11: Colombia, Gross Capital Formation (COP Billion, 2015 Chained Prices), Y-o-Y % Change
Figure 12: Colombia, Number of People Employed in The Construction Industry, In Thousands
Figure 13: Colombia, Production and Sales of Cement, In Tons
Figure 14: Colombia, Production of Ready-Mixed Concrete, In Thousand m3
Figure 15: Colombia, Producer Price Index (PPI) For Construction Materials, 2014=100, Y-o-Y % Change
Figure 16: Colombia, Construction Projects Momentum Index
Figure 17: Latin America, Construction Projects Momentum Index
Figure 18: Colombia, Commercial Construction Output by Project Type (Real, US$ Million), 2016-2025
Figure 19: Colombia, Commercial Construction Projects Pipeline, Value by Stage (US$ Million)
Figure 20: Colombia, Commercial Confidence Index
Figure 21: Colombia, Non-Resident Visitor Arrivals, In Thousands
Figure 22: Colombia, Value-Add of Wholesale and Retail and Repair of Motor Vehicles and Motorcycles, Transportation and Storage, and Accommodation and Food Services Activities, In 2015 Chained Prices, In COP Billion, Y-o-Y % Change
Figure 23: Colombia, Value-Add of Artistic, Entertainment and Recreation, and Other Service Activities, In 2015 Chained Prices, In COP Billion, Y-o-Y % Change
Figure 24: Colombia, Retail Sales Index, In Real Prices, 2019=100, Y-o-Y % Change
Figure 25: Colombia, Industrial Construction Output by Project Type (Real, US$ Million), 2016-2025
Figure 26: Colombia, Industrial Construction Projects Pipeline, Value by Stage (US$ Million)
Figure 27: Colombia, Manufacturing Value-add, In 2015 Chained Volume Measures, In COP Billion
Figure 28: Colombia, Industrial and Manufacturing Production Indices, 2018=100, Y-o-Y % Change
Figure 29: Colombia, Total Exports (in US$ Million), Y-o-Y % Change
Figure 30: Colombia, Manufacturing Confidence Index
Figure 31: Colombia, Infrastructure Construction Output by Project Type (Real, US$ Million), 2016-2025
Figure 32: Colombia, Infrastructure Construction Projects Pipeline, Value by Stage (US$ Million)
Figure 33: Colombia, Value-add of Civil Engineering Works, In 2015 Chained Volume Measures, In COP Billion
Figure 34: Colombia, Indicator of Investment in Civil Works (IIOC), Y-o-Y % Change
Figure 35: Colombia, Energy and Utilities Construction Output by Project Type (Real, US$ Million), 2016-2025
Figure 36: Colombia, Energy and Utilities Construction Projects Pipeline, Value by Stage (US$ Million)
Figure 37: Colombia, Value-Add of Supply of Electricity, Gas, Steam and Air Conditioning, and Water Distribution, Wastewater Evacuation and Treatment, and Waste Management and Environmental Sanitation Activities, In 2015 Chained Volume Measures, % Change YoY
Figure 38: Colombia, Value-add of Information and Communication Activities, In 2015 Chained Volume Measures, In COP Billion, % Change YoY
Figure 39: Colombia, Institutional Construction Output by Project Type (Real, US$ Million), 2016-2025
Figure 40: Colombia, Institutional Construction Projects Pipeline, Value by Stage (US$ Million)
Figure 41: Colombia, Value-Add of Education, Human Healthcare and Social Service Activities, In 2015 Chained Volume Measures, In COP Billion
Figure 42: Colombia, Value-Add of Public Administration and Defence, and Compulsory Social Security Plans, In 2015 Chained Volume Measures, In COP Billion
Figure 43: Colombia, Residential Construction Output by Project Type (Real, US$ Million), 2016-2025
Figure 44: Colombia, Residential Construction Projects Pipeline, Value by Stage (US$ Million)
Figure 45: Colombia, Real Estate Value-add, In 2015 Chained Volume Measures, In COP Billion, % Change YoY
Figure 46: Colombia, Total Balance of Mortgage Portfolio, In Current Prices, In COP Billion, % Change YoY
Figure 47: Colombia, Total Area Approved for Housing, In Thousand m2
Figure 48: Colombia, New Housing Price Index (IPVN), Q4 2020=100, % Change YoY
Figure 49: Colombia, Disbursement for Home Purchase, In COP Billion, Constant Prices, % Change YoY
Figure 50: Colombia, Home Construction Cost Index (ICCV), 1999=100, % Change YoY
Figure 51: Colombia, Headquarters of Key Contractors (% of Total Project Pipeline)
Figure 52: Colombia, Headquarters of Key Consultants (% of Total Project Pipeline)
