Table of Contents
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 2
1.1. Market summary 2
1.2. Key findings 2
1.3. Critical success factors 2
2. MARKET DYNAMICS 7
2.1. Introduction 7
2.2. The commercial property market showed steady GWP growth 7
2.2.1. GWP increased by 3.3% in 2017 as IPT was passed on to consumers 7
2.2.2. Insurers hardened rates to turn a profit in 2016 and 2017, after a tough 2015 8
2.2.3. Market COR increased in 2017, but remains under 100% 10
3. MARKET OPPORTUNITIES 16
3.1. New construction rose in 2017, but dipped in early 2018 16
3.1.1. Regulation has dampened interest in commercial property investment 20
3.2. A strong H2 in 2017 saw the real estate sector match 2016 lending 21
3.3. Global investment in London is booming 22
3.4. Rents are rising slowly across commercial sectors 23
3.4.1. Immigration and vacant property rates could prove detrimental to the commercial sector 27
3.5. Fly tipping has become a significant issue 29
4. COMPETITOR LANDSCAPE 30
4.1. The top five insurers dominate the market 30
4.1.1. Aviva is focusing on claims with a new partnership 31
4.1.2. AXA completed a merger with XL Catlin to create a global property & casualty powerhouse 32
4.2. Technology and preventative measures are emerging in the market 33
4.2.1. RSA is targeting prevention with the relaunch of the RSAred database 33
4.2.2. Allianz is prioritizing brokers 34
4.2.3. Cytora is a rare tech player to influence the market 35
4.2.4. FloodFlash aims to offer fairer cover to businesses in areas of flood risk 35
4.2.5. BIBA is looking towards drone insurance 35
5. FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS AND BEYOND 37
5.1. The immediate future will be defined by the weather and Brexit 37
5.1.1. GWP will rise above £6.3bn by 2022 37
5.2. Brexit will have a significant impact on the industry 39
5.2.1. The construction industry is lobbying government on labor availability 39
5.2.2. Overseas investors continue to be encouraged by favorable exchange rates 39
5.2.3. New regulation for overseas investors is expected 41
5.3. The Draft London Plan outlines projects to maintain status 41
5.4. Technology and the sharing economy are reshaping elements of the market 41
5.4.1. Airbnb is disrupting the market 41
5.4.2. Shared office space is taking off around the world 42
5.4.3. Homes can now be built by 3D printers 43
5.5. 2018 is expected to be a record year for commercial property sales 44
5.6. The logistics and industrial sectors look set for healthy growth 44
6. APPENDIX 45
6.1. Abbreviations and acronyms 45
6.2. Bibliography 45
6.3. Further reading 46

List of Tables
Table 1: UK commercial property underwriting results, 2009-17 9
Table 2: UK commercial property insurance market claims ratio, expenses ratio, and COR, 2013-17 10
Table 3: UK commercial property gross claims incurred (£m), by type of claim, 2013-17 13
Table 4: UK commercial property number of claims notified (000s), 2013-17 14
Table 5: Construction output, non-seasonally adjusted, current prices by sector (£000s), 2014-17 16
Table 6: Construction output, non-seasonally adjusted, current prices by sector CAGR, 2015-17 17
Table 7: Volume and percentage point increases in all categories of UK construction, May 2018 17
Table 8: Proportion of residential and commercial property rented in the UK, 2004, 2014, and 2017 19
Table 9: The cost of prime industrial rents in selected cities in the UK (euros per sq. meter) 25
Table 10: Population estimates summary for the UK, 2015-17 28
Table 11: Market shares by GWP for the top 10 players in the commercial property market, 2016-17 31
Table 12: GWP for the top 10 players in the commercial property market (£m), 2016-17 31
Table 13: Commercial property insurance market forecast for GWP and annual growth, 2017-22f 38
Table 14: The value of £1 in the leading 10 global currencies, September 2018 40

List of Figures
Figure 1: Commercial property insurance saw steady growth in 2017 8
Figure 2: The sector has only seen one year of negative profit since 2011 9
Figure 3: The commercial property market recorded a COR of 99.3% in 2017 11
Figure 4: 2016 was a challenging year for claims, with 2017 performing more in line with previous years 12
Figure 5: 2017 saw an improvement on claims notified compared to 2016 14
Figure 6: New housing work continues to grow 18
Figure 7: Commercial property remains larger than residential 19
Figure 8: The number of buy-to-let mortgages crashed after Q1 2016, but remortgages are on the rise 21
Figure 9: London dominates foreign investment in commercial property 23
Figure 10: Industrial rents rose sharply in Q2 2018 24
Figure 11: Industrial rent in London is by far the highest across the UK 25
Figure 12: Yield growth has largely dropped across commercial property categories to June 2018 26
Figure 13: The UK population has risen by just under 10% since 2005 27
Figure 14: Aviva and RSA saw growth in market shares in 2017 30
Figure 15: AXA uses apps to target smaller commercial players 33
Figure 16: The RSAred dashboard looks to provide customers with real-time data 34
Figure 17: The commercial property market will reach £6.3bn by 2022 38
Figure 18: Pound sterling is losing ground on the US dollar following the Brexit vote 40
Figure 19: The WeWork app allows companies to rent office space by the hour 43