Table of Contents
1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1.1. Growth in the market will be driven by higher costs of premiums
1.2. Key findings
1.3. Critical success factors
2. MARKET DYNAMICS
2.1. The private motor insurance market contracted in 2019
2.1.1. Market GWP contracted by 1.2% to £13.0bn
2.2. Factors influencing premiums in 2019
2.2.1. Premiums have decreased since reaching an all-time high in 2017
2.2.2. The most recent Ogden rate change has been disputed by insurers
2.2.3. IPT remains frozen at 12%
2.2.4. Consumers continue to renew in the first quarters of the year
2.2.5. The FCA set out a new proposal to tackle issues with dual pricing
2.2.6. Fewer younger drivers on the roads drives up premiums for older demographics
2.2.7. The impact of COVID-19 on the cost of premiums
2.3. The motor claims landscape in 2019
2.3.1. Claims notified rose despite previous falls
2.3.2. Average claim costs continued to rise in 2019
2.3.3. Bodily injury claims
2.3.4. COVID-19 is expected to create claim inflation
2.4. Road traffic accidents (RTAs) and their link to claims
2.4.1. Fraudulent insurance claims remain an issue for motor insurance
2.4.2. Total RTAs continue to decline, as do the number of claims
2.4.3. Recorded casualties for car occupants continue to decline
2.4.4. Fuel cost plays less of a factor in miles driven
2.4.5. The UK motor parc decreased by 2% in 2019
2.4.6. The pay-as-you-go insurance opportunity grows as average mileage continues to fall
3. COMPETITOR DYNAMICS
3.1. Direct Line is the market leader for motor insurance
3.1.1. The top five players make up 49.4% of the market share
3.2. Analysis of the market leaders
3.2.1. Direct Line stays competitive through partnerships
3.2.2. Aviva remains in second place
3.2.3. LV=
3.2.4. Munich Re entered the top five, with its GWP increasing by 41% in 2019
3.2.5. Admiral Group set market precedent during COVID-19
3.2.6. By Miles leads innovation for UBI
4. THE MARKET GOING FORWARD
4.1. The future outlook for private motor insurance
4.1.1. The forecast for the next five years
4.1.2. Despite savings associated with COVID-19, claims will remain an issue for motor insurers
4.2. The Civil Liability Act aims to reform personal injury motor claims
4.2.1. COVID-19 has delayed the implementation of the Civil Liability Act
4.2.2. A further delay of the Act can have further implications for the industry
4.2.3. The Civil Liability Act targets two main areas of the personal injury claim process
4.3. Other factors will also contribute to a rise in premiums
4.3.1. Brexit could lead to a further rise in premiums
4.3.2. Younger generations are no longer interested in owning a vehicle
4.3.3. FCA’s duel-pricing changes will lead to a further rise in premiums
4.4. Accelerated adoption of usage-based, car sharing, and peer-to-peer (P2P) policies
4.4.1. COVID-19 has accelerated the adoption of usage-based, pay-as-you-go car insurance
4.4.2. COVID-19 to accelerate the popularity of car-sharing schemes
4.5. Technology continues to reshape the motor insurance landscape
4.5.1. Telematics providers offer self-installation devices in light of COVID-19
4.5.2. Dashcams continue to play a role in the market
4.5.3. COVID-19 leads to further digitalization within motor insurance
4.6. Connected cars and smart roads will increase driver safety
4.6.1. Connected cars are the future of providing better insurance services
4.6.2. All new cars must have a speed limiter from 2022
4.6.3. Smart roads will make driving safer
4.7. The complexity of electric vehicle systems drives up premiums
4.7.1. Electric vehicles will represent more of the motor parc
4.8. Fully autonomous vehicles will disrupt the motor insurance landscape
4.8.1. Driverless cars are expected to be mainstream by 2045
4.8.2. The UK government continues to support the development of autonomous vehicles
4.8.3. The safety and testing of autonomous vehicles remain hazy
4.8.4. Propositions for how automated vehicles should be insured
4.8.5. Tesla sets market precedent for autonomous vehicle insurance
4.8.6. Technology challenges that still need to be overcome before autonomous vehicles hit the roads
4.8.7. Insurers need to be prepared for autonomous vehicles
4.8.8. The UK launches e-scooter trials
5. APPENDIX
5.1. Abbreviations and acronyms
5.2. Methodology
5.2.1. UK Top 20 General Insurance Competitor Analytics methodology
5.2.2. Forecasting methodology
5.3. Secondary sources
5.4. Further reading

List of Tables
Table 1: Number of claims settled, average cost, and gross claims paid by claim type, 2015-19
Table 2: GWP and market share of the top 10 private motor insurers in the UK, 2017-19

List of Figures
Figure 1: GWP contracted by 1.2% in 2019
Figure 2: Motor insurance premiums have decreased
Figure 3: Average premiums decreased for younger drivers in 2019
Figure 4: The number of claims notified and claims frequency reached their lowest levels in 2019
Figure 5: The average claims cost hit an all-time high in 2019
Figure 6: Personal injury is the most costly claim
Figure 7: The number of CRU claims decreased by 1.1% in 2019
Figure 8: Casualties continued to decrease in 2019
Figure 9: The number of vehicle miles rose to its highest recorded figure
Figure 10: Petrol prices remained high throughout 2019 but temporarily crashed due to COVID-19
Figure 11: The number of newly licensed vehicles has fallen, but total licensed cars is at an all-time high
Figure 12: Due to COVID-19, annual mileages are expected to fall considerably
Figure 13: Direct Line is the market leader for personal motor insurance in the UK
Figure 14: The personal motor market is set to expand, reaching £15.5bn by 2024
Figure 15: Forecasting methodology