Summary
"Future of the Vietnamese Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2023", published by Strategic Defence Intelligence, provides readers with detailed analysis of both historic and forecast defense industry values, factors influencing demand, the challenges faced by industry participants, analysis of industry leading companies, and key news.
This report offers detailed analysis of Vietnamese defense industry with market size forecasts covering the next five years. This report will also analyze factors that influence demand for the industry, key market trends, and challenges faced by industry participants.
In particular, it provides an in-depth analysis of the following -
- Vietnamese defense industry market size and drivers: detailed analysis of Vietnamese defense industry during 2019–2023, including highlights of the demand drivers and growth stimulators for the industry. It also provides a snapshot of the country’s expenditure and modernization patterns
- Budget allocation and key challenges: insights into procurement schedules formulated within the country and a breakdown of the defense budget. It also details the key challenges faced by defense market participants within the country
- Import and Export Dynamics: analysis of prevalent trends in the country’s imports and exports over the last five years
- Market opportunities: details of the top defense investment opportunities over the next 10 years
- Competitive landscape and strategic insights: analysis of the competitive landscape of Vietnamesen defense industry. It provides an overview of key players, together with insights such as key alliances, strategic initiatives, and a brief financial analysis
Scope
- Conflicts in the South China Sea and the need to replace obsolete military equipment have driven Vietnam’s defense expenditure throughout 2014–2018 and are expected to do so over the forecast period. Vietnam’s defense budget grew from US$4.3 billion in 2014 to US$5.4 billion in 2018, at a CAGR 6.14%.
- The Vietnamese Government is expected to maintain a steady allocation of an average of 32.3% of defense budget for capital expenditure over the forecast period, which is same as average of 32.3% between 2014 and 2018.
- The country is expected to procure military equipment to boost its naval strength and maritime security in order to counter the threat from China’s growing naval strength in the South China Sea. In addition, Vietnam intends to procure military equipment such as corvettes, patrol vessels, frigates, submarines, aircraft, missiles, and armored vehicles as part of its modernization program.
Reasons to buy
- This report will give the user confidence to make the correct business decisions based on a detailed analysis of Vietnamese defense industry market trends for the coming five years
- The market opportunity section will inform the user about the various military requirements that are expected to generate revenues during the forecast period. The description includes technical specifications, recent orders, and the expected investment pattern by the country during the forecast period
- Detailed profiles of the top domestic and foreign defense manufacturers with information about their products, alliances, recent contract wins, and financial analysis wherever available. This will provide the user with a total competitive landscape of the sector
- A deep qualitative analysis of Vietnamese defense industry covering sections including demand drivers, Porter’s Five Forces Analysis, Key Trends and Growth Stimulators, and latest industry contracts
Companies Mentioned
Vietnam Shipbuilding Industry Corporation (SBIC)
Sukhoi JSC
Admiralty Shipyards
Damen Schelde Naval Shipbuilding (DSNS)
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Table of Contents
1. Introduction 7
1.1. What is this Report About? 7
1.2. Definitions 7
1.3. Summary Methodology 11
1.4. About Strategic Defence Intelligence 13
2. Executive Summary 14
3. Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities 16
3.1. Current Market Scenario 18
3.1.1. Military Fleet Size 18
3.1.2. Procurement Programs 22
3.1.3. Key Drivers and Challenges 24
3.2. Defense Market Size Historical and Forecast 26
3.2.1. Defense expenditure is projected to grow at a CAGR of 7.05% during the forecast period 26
3.2.2. Military modernization and the crisis in the South China Sea are expected to be the prime factors driving Vietnamese military expenditure 29
3.2.3. Defense expenditure as a percentage of GDP is expected to hover at 2.1% over the forecast period 32
3.3. Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation 34
3.3.1. Share of capital expenditure in the overall defense budget is expected to increase 34
3.3.2. Vietnam’s capital expenditure is expected to grow at a CAGR of 7.03% over the forecast period 36
3.3.3. Per capita defense expenditure to be US$76.9 by 2023 39
3.4. Homeland Security Market Size and Forecast 41
3.4.1. Homeland security expenditure is expected to be US$4.5 billion by 2023 41
3.4.2. The main factors driving homeland security expenditure are the illicit drugs trade and human trafficking 43
3.4.3. Vietnam faces a some level threat from foreign terrorist organizations 45
3.4.4. Vietnam faces negligible threat from foreign terrorist organizations 46
3.4.5. Vietnam has a minimal terrorism index score of 0 48
3.5. Benchmarking with Key Global Markets 49
3.5.1. Vietnamese defense expenditure is expected to remain low compared to leading spenders 49
3.5.2. Vietnam has a low defense expenditure compared to other Asian countries 51
3.5.3. Vietnam’s defense expenditure as a percentage of GDP is higher than leading Asian defense spenders 52
3.6. Defense Market Opportunities: Key Trends and Growth Stimulators 53
3.6.1. Top Defense Market Sectors by Value (US$ Million) - Projections over 2018-2023 53
4. Defense Procurement Market Dynamics 54
4.1. Import Market Dynamics 55
4.1.1. Limited domestic defense capabilities drives the country’s defense imports 55
4.1.2. Defense imports are expected to increase over the forecast period 56
4.1.3. Russia is a significant defense trade partner of Vietnam 57
4.1.4. Naval vessels and aircraft accounted for the majority of defense imports over 2013-2017 59
4.2. Export Market Dynamics 60
4.2.1. The country has been unable to access the global defense market 60
5. Industry Dynamics 61
5.1. Market Regulation 61
5.1.1. Vietnamese procurement rules stress on international collaborations 61
5.1.2. Vietnam has not disclosed any offset obligations 61
5.2. Market Entry Route 62
5.2.1. Budget Process 62
5.2.2. Procurement Policy and Process 63
5.2.3. Foreign equipment manufacturers can enter the market through direct commercial sales 63
5.2.4. Government-to-government deals are an attractive entry route to the country’s defense market 63
5.3. Key Challenges 64
5.3.1. Lack of private participants and foreign direct investment may restrict domestic defense industry growth 64
5.3.2. Lack of transparency and corruption impedes the growth of Vietnam’s defense industry 64
6. Competitive Landscape and Strategic Insights 65
6.1. Competitive Landscape Overview 65
7. Business Environment and Country Risk 66
7.1. Economic Performance 66
7.1.1. Gross Domestic per Capita 66
7.1.2. Gross Domestic Product, current US$ 67
7.1.3. Exports of Goods and Services 68
7.1.4. Imports of Goods and Services 69
7.1.5. Local Currency Unit per US$ 70
7.1.6. Market capitalization of listed companies (US$ Billion) 71
7.1.7. Market capitalization of listed companies as a % of GDP 72
7.1.8. Goods Exports as a percentage of GDP 73
7.1.9. Goods Imports as a percentage of GDP 74
7.1.10. Services Imports as a percentage of GDP 75
7.1.11. Services Exports as a percentage of GDP 76
7.1.12. Foreign direct investment, net (BoP, current US$ Bn) 77
7.1.13. Net foreign direct investment as a % of GDP 78
7.1.14. Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output 79
8. Appendix 80
8.1. About SDI 80
8.2. Disclaimer 80
List of Tables
Table 1: Vietnam Army Strength 18
Table 2: Vietnamese Navy Strength 19
Table 3: Vietnamese Air Force Strength 20
Table 4: Vietnam - Ongoing Development and Procurement Programs 22
Table 5: Vietnamese - Future Procurement Programs 23
Table 6: Vietnamese Defense Expenditure (VND Trillion & US$ Billion), 2014-2023 27
Table 7: Vietnamese GDP Growth and Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP Growth, 2014-2023 32
Table 8: Vietnamese Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2014-2023 34
Table 9: Vietnamese Defense Capital Expenditure (VND Trillion & US$ Billion), 2014-2023 37
Table 10: Vietnamese Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2014-2023 39
Table 11: Vietnamese Homeland Security Expenditure (VND Trillion & US$ Billion), 2014-2023 41
Table 12: Terrorism Index, 2018 46
Table 13: Benchmarking with Key Markets - 2014-2018 vs. 2019-2023 49
Table 14: Top Vietnamese Defense Market Sectors by Value (US$ Million) - 2018-2023 53
Table 15: Vietnamese Budget Formation Process 62
Table 16: Competitive Landscape of the Vietnamese Defense Industry 65
List of Figures
Figure 1: Vietnamese Defense Expenditure (VND Trillion), 2014-2023 27
Figure 2: Vietnamese Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2014-2023 28
Figure 3: Vietnamese GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP Growth, 2014-2023 33
Figure 4: Vietnamese Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2014-2023 35
Figure 5: Vietnamese Defense Capital Expenditure (VND Trillion), 2014-2023 37
Figure 6: Vietnamese Defense Capital Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2014-2023 38
Figure 7: Vietnamese Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2014-2023 40
Figure 8: Vietnamese Homeland Security Expenditure (VND Trillion), 2014-2023 42
Figure 9: Vietnamese Homeland Security Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2014-2023 42
Figure 10: Terrorism Heat Map, 2018 45
Figure 11: Terrorism Index, 2018 48
Figure 12: Benchmarking with Key Markets - 2014-2018 vs. 2019-2023 50
Figure 13: Benchmarking with World’s Largest and Top Regional Defense Spenders (US$ Billion), 2018 and 2023 51
Figure 14: Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP of Largest Military Spenders (%), 2018 52
Figure 15: Vietnamese Defense Import Trend, 2013-2017 (TIV values) 56
Figure 16: Vietnamese Defense Imports by Country (%), 2013-2017 58
Figure 17: Vietnamese Defense Imports by Category (%), 2013-2017 59
Figure 18: Vietnam’s GDP per capita, 2015-2025 66
Figure 19: Vietnam’s Gross Domestic Product (current US$ Billion), 2015-2025 67
Figure 20: Vietnam’s Exports of goods and services (LCU Billion), 2005-2014 68
Figure 21: Vietnam’s Imports of goods and services (LCU Bn), 2005-2014 69
Figure 22: Vietnam’s LCU per US$, 2015-2024 70
Figure 23: Vietnam’s market capitalization of listed companies (US$ Billion), 2005-2012 71
Figure 24: Vietnam’s market capitalization of listed companies as a % of GDP, 2005-2012 72
Figure 25: Vietnam’s Goods Exports as a percentage of GDP, 2005-2013 73
Figure 26: Vietnam’s Goods Imports as a percentage of GDP, 2005-2013 74
Figure 27: Vietnam’s Services Imports as a percentage of GDP, 2005-2013 75
Figure 28: Vietnam’s Services Exports as a percentage of GDP, 2005-2013 76
Figure 29: Vietnam’s Foreign direct investment, net (BoP, current US$ Bn), 2005-2013 77
Figure 30: Vietnam’s Net foreign direct investment as a % of GDP, 2005-2013 78
Figure 31: Vietnam’s Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (LCU Billion), 2005-2014 79
