Summary
The Future of the Norwegian Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2022, published by Strategic Defence Intelligence, provides readers with detailed analysis of both historic and forecast defense industry values, factors influencing demand, the challenges faced by industry participants, analysis of industry leading companies, and key news.
This report offers detailed analysis of the Norwegian defense industry with market size forecasts covering the next five years. This report will also analyze factors that influence demand for the industry, key market trends, and challenges faced by industry participants.
In particular, it provides an in-depth analysis of the following -
- The Norwegian defense industry market size and drivers: detailed analysis of the Norwegian defense industry during 2018-2022, including highlights of the demand drivers and growth stimulators for the industry. It also provides a snapshot of the country’s expenditure and modernization patterns
- Budget allocation and key challenges: insights into procurement schedules formulated within the country and a breakdown of the defense budget. It also details the key challenges faced by defense market participants within the country
- Porter’s Five Force analysis of the Norwegian defense industry: analysis of the market characteristics by determining the bargaining power of suppliers, bargaining power of buyers, threat of substitution, intensity of rivalry, and barriers to entry
- Import and Export Dynamics: analysis of prevalent trends in the country’s imports and exports over the last five years
- Market opportunities: details of the top five defense investment opportunities over the next 10 years
- Competitive landscape and strategic insights: analysis of the competitive landscape of the Norwegian defense industry. It provides an overview of key players, together with insights such as key alliances, strategic initiatives, and a brief financial analysis
Scope
- Norway’s total defense expenditure values US$6 billion in 2017 and is expected to reach US$7.6 billion by 2022; this can be attributed to military modernization initiatives and training programs that are expected to be executed during the forecast period. A considerable portion of the budget is anticipated to be directed towards the procurement of military aircraft such as the F-35 fighter aircraft, the Norwegian All Weather Search and Rescue Helicopter (NAWSARH) program, maritime patrol aircraft, Advanced Medium Range Air-to-Air Missiles (AMRAAM), upgrade and support for C-130J aircraft, the soldier modernization program, cyber security, and the purchase of advanced technology equipment. In addition, the defense budget will likely be driven by participation in peacekeeping initiatives. During 2013-2017, the average capital expenditure allocation stood at 27.5% of the total defense budget, and this is expected to increase to 32% during the forecast period.
- On a cumulative basis, the country is expected to invest US$34.8 billion for defense purposes, of which US$11.1 billion is earmarked for capital expenditure to fund defense procurements. Norway pursuing a long term plan to reorganize and restructure its military and the country plans to enhance cost efficiencies as a part of its long term investment plan. As a part of restructuring effort Norway plans to transform its military forces in to more compact yet effectively equipped force with upgraded strike capability, capable of prolonged operations on frontlines with Russia. The country cost-efficiency initiative is a vital component of a much larger multiple branch capital spending plan, that intends to yield significant savings to fund a higher level of combat readiness, modern capabilities and fire power with Norwegian defense structure as well as military organization. The country plans to invest about US$300 million, which would be yielded form cost-efficiency drive to assuage perennial under funding issues with the Norwegian military forces, inclusive of Army, Air Force and Navy between the periods 2017-2020. To affect cost savings, the Norwegian government plans to close 11 military bases across the country and divert resources to fund capital acquisitions for military forces.
- The MoD is expected to invest in fighters & multirole aircrafts, diesel electric submarines MRO, Multi-role aircraft MRO, and Multi-mission helicopters
Reasons to buy
- This report will give the user confidence to make the correct business decisions based on a detailed analysis of the Norwegian defense industry market trends for the coming five years
- The market opportunity section will inform the user about the various military requirements that are expected to generate revenues during the forecast period. The description includes technical specifications, recent orders, and the expected investment pattern by the country during the forecast period
- Detailed profiles of the top domestic and foreign defense manufacturers with information about their products, alliances, recent contract wins, and financial analysis wherever available. This will provide the user with a total competitive landscape of the sector
- A deep qualitative analysis of the Norwegian defense industry covering sections including demand drivers, Porter’s Five Forces Analysis, Key Trends and Growth Stimulators, and latest industry contracts
Companies Mentioned
Kongsberg Defense and Aerospace AS
Forsvarets ForskningsInstitutt (FFI)
NAMMO AS (Nordic Ammunition Group)
Kitron
Thales Norway AS
UmoeMandal and Eidsvoll Electronics AS (Eidel)
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Table of Contents
1 Introduction
1.1. What is this Report About?
1.2. Definitions
1.3. Summary Methodology
1.4. About Strategic Defence Intelligence
2 Executive Summary
3 Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities
3.1. Current Market Scenario
3.1.1. Primary threat perception
3.1.2. Military Doctrine & Strategy
3.1.3. Military Fleet Size
3.1.4. Procurement Programs
3.1.5. Ongoing procurement programs
3.1.6. Future procurement programs
3.1.7. Social, Political and Economic Environment & Support for Defense Projects
3.1.8. Political & Strategic Alliances
3.2. Defense Market Size Historical and Forecast
3.2.1. Norwegian defense budget will grow at a CAGR of 4.85% over 2018-2022
3.2.2. Modernizing the armed forces, participating in international peacekeeping operations, and an interest in the Arctic region are the main factors driving the Norwegian defense industry
3.2.3. Defense expenditure as a percentage of GDP is expected to average 1.2% during the forecast period
3.3. Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation
3.3.1. Capital expenditure allocation is expected to increase over the forecast period
3.3.2. Capital expenditure to increase at a CAGR of 4.87% over 2018-2022
3.3.3. Expenditure on the 'other' segment expected to be the largest during forecast period
3.3.4. Army expenditure to grow at a CAGR of 3.49% over the forecast period to reach US$908.8 Million in 2022
3.3.5. Air force expenditure to grow at a CAGR of 0.02% over the forecast period
3.3.6. Naval expenditure is expected to reach US$920.8 million by 2022
3.3.7. 'Other' expenditure is expected to increase at a CAGR of 6.28% over the forecast period
3.3.8. Per capita defense expenditure set to decrease over the forecast period
3.4. Homeland Security Market Size and Forecast
3.4.1. Norwegian homeland security expenditure is expected to grow at a CAGR of 19.28% over the forecast period
3.4.2. Counter-terrorism and enhanced cyber security are expected to drive homeland security expenditure
3.4.3. Norway is at a "moderately affected" by terrorism
3.4.4. Norway faces moderate level of threat from foreign terrorist organizations
3.4.5. Norway has a terrorism index score of "2.1"
3.5. Benchmarking with Key Global Markets
3.5.1. Norwegian defense budget expenditure expected to increase over the forecast period
3.5.2. Norway has the one of the fastest-growing defense industries in Europe
3.5.3. Norwegian defense budget as a percentage of GDP is expected to grow over the forecast period
3.6. Market Opportunities: Key Trends and Growth Stimulators
3.6.1. Fighters and Multi-role aircraft
3.6.2. Diesel Electric Submarine & MRO
3.6.3. Multi-role Aircraft MRO
3.6.4. Multi-mission Helicopters
4 Defense Procurement Market Dynamics
4.1. Import Market Dynamics
4.1.1. Norwegian defense imports are expected to increase over the forecast period
4.1.2. Spain and the US are the largest arms suppliers to Norway
4.1.3. Ships accounted for the largest percentage share of overall defense imports
4.2. Export Market Dynamics
4.2.1. Norway was among the top 20 countries with the highest volume of defense exports
4.2.2. Exports to European countries are expected to increase over the forecast period
4.2.3. The air defense systems category accounted for the majority of Norway's defense exports during 2012-2016
5 Industry Dynamics
5.1. Five Forces Analysis
5.1.1. Bargaining power of Supplier: Low
5.1.2. Bargaining power of Buyer: High
5.1.3. Barrier to entry: Medium
5.1.4. Intensity of rivalry: High
5.1.5. Threat of Substitution: High
6 Market Entry Strategy
6.1. Budgeting Process
6.2. Procurement Policy & Process
6.3. Market Regulation
6.3.1. The Norwegian defense industry is largely driven by government regulation and offset policy
6.3.2. The Norwegian government supports FDI
6.4. Market Entry Route
6.4.1. Entry through joint development programs
6.4.2. Foreign Military Sales (FMS) to Norway
6.4.3. Collaborations provide market entry opportunities
6.5. Key Challenges
6.5.1. The Norwegian government prefers Scandinavian and European countries for defense trade
6.5.2. The Norwegian export policy poses a challenge for domestic defense companies
7 Competitive Landscape and Strategic Insights
7.1. Competitive Landscape Overview
7.2. Key Public Sector Companies
7.2.1. Kongsberg Defense Systems: Overview
7.2.2. Kongsberg Defense Systems: Major Products and Services
7.2.3. Kongsberg Defense Systems: Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives
7.2.4. Kongsberg Defense Systems: alliances
7.2.5. Kongsberg Defense Systems: recent contract wins
7.2.6. Forsvarets ForskningsInstitutt: overview
7.2.7. Forsvarets ForskningsInstitutt: defense products
7.2.8. Forsvarets ForskningsInstitutt: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
7.2.9. Forsvarets ForskningsInstitutt: alliances
7.2.10. Forsvarets ForskningsInstitutt: recent contract wins
7.2.11. NAMMO AS: overview
7.2.12. NAMMO AS: products and services
7.2.13. NAMMO AS: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
7.2.14. NAMMO AS: alliances
7.2.15. NAMMO AS: recent contract wins
7.2.16. Kitron: overview
7.2.17. Kitron: products and services
7.2.18. Kitron: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
7.2.19. Kitron: alliances
7.2.20. Kitron: recent contract win
7.2.21. Kitron: financial analysis
7.3. Key Private Sector Companies
7.3.1. Thales Norway AS: overview
7.3.2. Thales Norway AS: products and services
7.3.3. Thales Norway AS: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
7.3.4. Thales Norway AS: alliances
7.3.5. Thales Norway AS: recent contract wins
7.3.6. UmoeMandal: overview
7.3.7. UmoeMandal: products and services
7.3.8. Umoe Mandal: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
7.3.9. Umoe Mandal: alliances
7.3.10. Eidsvoll Electronics AS: overview
7.3.11. Eidsvoll Electronics AS: products and services
7.3.12. Eidsvoll Electronics AS: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
7.3.13. Eidsvoll Electronics AS: alliances
7.3.14. Eidsvoll Electronics AS: recent contract wins
8 Business Environment and Country Risk
8.1. Economic Performance
8.1.1. GDP per capita at constant prices
8.1.2. GDP at current prices (US$)
8.1.3. Exports of goods and services (current LCU bn)
8.1.4. Imports of goods and services (current LCU bn)
8.1.5. Gross national disposable income (US$ billion)
8.1.6. LCU per US$ (period average)
8.1.7. Market capitalization of listed companies (US$ bn)
8.1.8. Market capitalization of listed companies (% of GDP)
8.1.9. Total Government cash surplus/deficit (LCU billion)
8.1.10. Government cash surplus/deficit as a percentage of GDP (LCU)
8.1.11. Goods exports as a percentage of GDP
8.1.12. Goods imports as a percentage of GDP
8.1.13. Services imports as a percentage of GDP
8.1.14. Service exports as a percentage of GDP
8.1.15. Foreign direct investment, net (BoP, current US$ billions)
8.1.16. Net foreign direct investment as a percentage of GDP
8.1.17. Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (US$ billion)
9 Appendix
9.1. About SDI
9.2. Disclaimer
List of Tables
Table 1: Norwegian Army Strength
Table 2: Norwegian Navy Strength
Table 3: Norwegian Air Force Strength
Table 4: Norwegian Ongoing Procurement Programs
Table 5: Norwegian Future Procurement Programs
Table 6: Norwegian Defense Expenditure (NOK billion & US$ billion), 2013-2022
Table 7: Norwegian GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP, 2013-2022
Table 8: Norwegian Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2013-2022
Table 9: Norwegian Defense Capital Expenditure (NOK Billion & US$ Million), 2013-2022
Table 10: Norwegian Defense Expenditure Breakdown (%), 2013-2022
Table 11: Norwegian Defense Expenditure for Army (NOK Billion & US$ Million), 2013-2022
Table 12: Norwegian Defense Expenditure for Air Force (NOK Billion & US$ Million), 2013-2022
Table 13: Norwegian Defense Expenditure for Navy (NOK Billion & US$ Million), 2013-2022
Table 14: Norwegian Defense Expenditure for Navy (NOK Billion & US$ Billion), 2013-2022
Table 15: Danish Per-Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2013-2022
Table 16: Norwegian Homeland Security Expenditure (NOK Billion & US$ Billion), 2013-2022
Table 17: Terrorism Index, 2017
Table 18: Benchmarking with Key Markets - 2013-2017 vs. 2018-2022
Table 19: Norwegian Budget Formation Timetable:
Table 20: Offset Multiplier Categories
Table 21: Market Entry Strategies by Key Foreign Companies
Table 22: FMS deals to Norway
Table 23: Kongsberg Defense Systems - Major Products & Services
Table 24: Kongsberg Defense Systems - Alliances
Table 25: Kongsberg Defense Systems - Recent Contract Wins
Table 26: Forsvarets ForskningsInstitutt - Product Focus
Table 27: Forsvarets ForskningsInstitutt - Alliances
Table 28: Forsvarets ForskningsInstitutt - Recent Contract Wins
Table 29: NAMMO AS - Product Focus
Table 30: NAMMO AS - Alliances
Table 31: NAMMO AS - Recent Contract Wins
Table 32: Kitron - Product Focus
Table 33: Kitron - Alliances
Table 34: Kitron - Recent Contract Wins
Table 35: Thales Norway AS - product focus
Table 36: Thales Norway AS - Alliances
Table 37: Thales Norway AS - Recent Contract Wins
Table 38: Umoe Mandal - Product Focus
Table 39: Umoe Mandal - Alliances
Table 40: Eidsvoll Electronics AS - Product Focus
Table 41: Eidsvoll Electronics - Alliances
Table 42: Eidsvoll - Recent Contract Wins
List of Figures
Figure 1: Norwegian Defense Expenditure (NOK Billion), 2013-2022
Figure 2: Norwegian Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2013-2022
Figure 3: Norwegian GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP, 2013-2022
Figure 4:Norwegian Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%),2013-2022
Figure 5: Norwegian Defense Capital Expenditure (NOK Billion), 2013-2022
Figure 6: Norwegian Defense Capital Expenditure (US$ million), 2013-2022
Figure 7: Norwegian Defense Expenditure Breakdown (%), 2013-2022
Figure 8: Norwegian Defense Expenditure for Army (NOK Billion), 2013-2022
Figure 9: Norwegian Defense Expenditure for Army (US$ Million), 2013-2022
Figure 10: Norwegian Defense Expenditure for Air Force (NOK Billion), 2013-2022
Figure 11: Norwegian Defense Expenditure for Air Force (US$ Billion), 2013-2022
Figure 12: Norwegian Defense Expenditure for Navy (NOK billion), 2013-2022
Figure 13: Norwegian Defense Expenditure for Navy (US$ billion), 2013-2022
Figure 14: Norwegian Defense Expenditure for Other Categories (NOK billion), 2013-2022
Figure 15: Norwegian Defense Expenditure for Other Categories (US$ billion), 2013-2022
Figure 16: Norwegian Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2013-2022
Figure 17: Norwegian Homeland Security Expenditure (NOK billion), 2013-2022
Figure 18: Norwegian Homeland Security Expenditure (US$ billion), 2013-2022
Figure 19: Terrorism Heat Map, 2017
Figure 20: Terrorism Index, 2017
Figure 21: Benchmarking with Key Markets - 2013-2017 vs. 2018-2022
Figure 22: Benchmarking with World's Largest Defense Spenders (US$ Billion), 2017 and 2022
Figure 23: Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP of Largest Military Spenders (%), 2017
Figure 24: Fighters & Multi-Role Aircraft (US$ Million), 2017-2027
Figure 25: Diesel Electric Submarine (US$ Million), 2017-2027
Figure 26: Multi-role Aircraft MRO (US$ Million), 2017-2027
Figure 27: Multi-mission Helicopters (US$ Million), 2017-2027
Figure 28: Norwegian Defense Import Trend, 2012-2016 (TIV values*)
Figure 29: Norwegian Defense Import by Country, 2012-2016 (TIV values)
Figure 30: Norwegian Defense Imports by Category (%),2012-2016
Figure 31: Norwegian Defense Exports by Value (%), 2012-2016
Figure 32: Norwegian Defense exports by Country (%), 2012-2016
Figure 33: Norwegian Defense Exports by Category (%), 2012-2016
Figure 34: Industry Dynamics - Porter's Five Forces Analysis
Figure 35: Kitron - Revenue Trend Analysis (NOK Million), 2011-2015
Figure 36: Kitron - Operating Profit Trend Analysis (NOK Million), 2010-2014
Figure 37: Kitron - Net Profit Trend Analysis (NOK Million), 2010-2014
Figure 38: Norwegian GDP Per Capita at Constant Prices (US$), 2015-2025
Figure 39: Norway GDP at Current Prices (US$ Billion), 2015-2025
Figure 40: Norwegian Exports of goods and services (LCU Bn), 2005-2014
Figure 41: Norwegian Imports of goods and services (LCU Bn), 2005-2014
Figure 42: Norwegian Gross national disposable income (US$ billion), 2003-2012
Figure 43: Norway LCU per US$, 2015-2024
Figure 44: Norwegian market capitalization of listed companies (US$ billion), 2005-2012
Figure 45: Norwegian market capitalization of listed companies (% of GDP), 2005-2012
Figure 46: Norwegian Total Government cash surplus/deficit (LCU billion), 2003-2012
Figure 47: Norwegian Government cash surplus/deficit as % of GDP (LCU), 2005-2012
Figure 48: Norway- Goods exports as a % of GDP (%), 2005-2013
Figure 49: Norway- Goods imports as a % of GDP (%), 2005-2013
Figure 50: Norwegian Services imports as a % of GDP (%), 2005-2013
Figure 51: Norwegian Service exports as a % of GDP (%), 2005-2013
Figure 52: Norway- Foreign direct investment, net (BoP, current US$ billion), 2005-2013
Figure 53: Norwegian Net foreign direct investment as % of GDP, 2005-2014
Figure 54: Norwegian Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (US$ billion), 2005-2014
